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Corumbaense vs Coxim

Brazil Brazil

Sul-Matogrossense 2025
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Match Events

45' Event
Rian
59' Event
Fernando L.
83' Event
Donato

AI Match Summary

Coxim in this Sul-Matogrossense 2025 matchup, with the score ending 1-2 — backing the pre-match view that favored Coxim.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

40%
Corumbaense
20%
Draws
40%
Coxim
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

40% / Low Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Corumbaense lately — more wins on the board than Coxim.
  • Model gives Corumbaense a 40% chance of winning this.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • History favors Corumbaense here — 2 wins from the last 3 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 72.2%
Corumbaense Clean Sheet 15%
Coxim Clean Sheet 12%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Corumbaense Coxim
Matches Played 31 30
Wins 9 7
Draws 10 6
Losses 12 17
Goals Scored 1.19 0.87
Goals Conceded 1.23 1.93
Expected Goals (xG) 1.19 1.56
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 22, 2025 Sul-Matogrossense
Corumbaense vs Coxim
1:2
Mar 23, 2024 Sul-Matogrossense
Coxim vs Corumbaense
1:2
Mar 16, 2024 Sul-Matogrossense
Corumbaense vs Coxim
4:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Corumbaense Compare

Top Goalscorer Donato
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.92
Avg xA / game 0.59

Coxim Compare

Top Goalscorer Rian
1 Goals
Assists Leader Fernando L.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.42
Avg xA / game 0.87

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Corumbaense 84 / 100
Coxim 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Corumbaense Coxim

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Corumbaense Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Coxim has conceded goals in 87% of their last 30 outings.

Games between these two average 4.00 goals.

Corumbaense's goal record stands at 74% scoring rate across 31 recent games.

Recent resilience: Corumbaense stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Corumbaense VS Coxim
0.88 Goals Scored 1
2.13 Goals Conceded 1.5
63% Over 1.5 100%
50% Over 2.5 50%
38% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Corumbaense

(Home)
18 Mar
Operario MS
2 : 1
Corumbaense
15 Mar
Corumbaense
1 : 2
Operario MS
11 Mar
Corumbaense
2 : 0
Dourados
08 Mar
Dourados
1 : 1
Corumbaense
01 Mar
Costa Rica
0 : 2
Corumbaense
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Coxim

(Away)
02 Mar
Coxim
0 : 2
Naviraiense
22 Feb
Corumbaense
1 : 2
Coxim
16 Feb
Coxim
2 : 1
Aguia Negra
09 Feb
Coxim
0 : 2
Ivinhema
05 Feb
Dourados
2 : 2
Coxim
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Ivinhema 9 6 1 2 21:7 19
2 Pantanal 9 5 3 1 17:7 18
3 Dourados 9 5 3 1 17:7 18
4 Operario MS 9 5 1 3 11:12 16
5 Costa Rica 9 3 5 1 14:10 14
6 Aguia Negra 9 3 2 4 14:14 11
7 Naviraiense 9 2 3 4 11:14 9
8 Corumbaense 9 2 2 5 8:14 8
9 Coxim 9 2 1 6 7:18 7
10 Aquidauanense 9 1 1 7 12:29 4
Promotion - Sul-Matogrossense 2025 (Play Offs)
Promotion - Sul-Matogrossense 2025 (Play Offs)
Relegation - Sul-Matogrossense 2 (Main)