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Corumbaense vs Pantanal

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Sul-Matogrossense 2025
Our Tip

Match Events

80' Event
Filipe Noturno

AI Match Summary

The Sul-Matogrossense 2025 game between Corumbaense and Pantanal finished 1-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Corumbaense.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

54%
Corumbaense
30%
Draws
16%
Pantanal
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Corumbaense

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

54% / Medium Confidence
  • Corumbaense haven't matched Pantanal's recent run of results.
  • Model gives Corumbaense a 54% chance of winning this.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 74.2%
Corumbaense Clean Sheet 20%
Pantanal Clean Sheet 11%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Corumbaense Pantanal
Matches Played 31 31
Wins 9 10
Draws 10 12
Losses 12 9
Goals Scored 1.19 1.39
Goals Conceded 1.23 1.29
Expected Goals (xG) 1.25 1.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 4, 2026 Sul-Matogrossense
Pantanal vs Corumbaense
1:1
Feb 1, 2025 Sul-Matogrossense
Corumbaense vs Pantanal
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Corumbaense Compare

Top Goalscorer Filipe Noturno
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.96
Avg xA / game 0.63

Pantanal Compare

Avg xG / game 0.91
Avg xA / game 0.56

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Corumbaense 85 / 100
Pantanal 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Corumbaense Pantanal

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Corumbaense Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Corumbaense scored in 74% of their last 31 outings.

Pantanal let in goals in 77% of their last 31 matches.

These sides typically produce 1.50 goals when they meet.

Corumbaense went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Corumbaense VS Pantanal
1 Goals Scored 1.13
0.88 Goals Conceded 1.5
63% Over 1.5 88%
13% Over 2.5 38%
13% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Corumbaense

(Home)
18 Mar
Operario MS
2 : 1
Corumbaense
15 Mar
Corumbaense
1 : 2
Operario MS
11 Mar
Corumbaense
2 : 0
Dourados
08 Mar
Dourados
1 : 1
Corumbaense
01 Mar
Costa Rica
0 : 2
Corumbaense
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Pantanal

(Away)
01 Mar
Pantanal
2 : 2
Ivinhema
22 Feb
Clube de Regatas Aquidauana
2 : 0
Pantanal
18 Feb
Ji-Parana
2 : 0
Pantanal
11 Feb
Bataguassu
1 : 1
Pantanal
07 Feb
Pantanal
2 : 3
Naviraiense
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Ivinhema 9 6 1 2 21:7 19
2 Pantanal 9 5 3 1 17:7 18
3 Dourados 9 5 3 1 17:7 18
4 Operario MS 9 5 1 3 11:12 16
5 Costa Rica 9 3 5 1 14:10 14
6 Aguia Negra 9 3 2 4 14:14 11
7 Naviraiense 9 2 3 4 11:14 9
8 Corumbaense 9 2 2 5 8:14 8
9 Coxim 9 2 1 6 7:18 7
10 Aquidauanense 9 1 1 7 12:29 4
Promotion - Sul-Matogrossense 2025 (Play Offs)
Promotion - Sul-Matogrossense 2025 (Play Offs)
Relegation - Sul-Matogrossense 2 (Main)