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Costa Adeje Tenerife W vs Atl. Madrid W

Spain Spain

Copa de la Reina Women Estadio Heliodoro Rodríguez López
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Costa Adeje Tenerife W play Atl. Madrid W in the Copa de la Reina Women. It looks like a close match. Recently, Costa Adeje Tenerife W averaged 1.42 goals scored and 0.81 conceded. Atl. Madrid W averaged 1.64 goals scored and 1.52 conceded. In past meetings, Costa Adeje Tenerife W won 1, Atl. Madrid W won 3, and they drew 1. Their last match on May 26, 2026 ended 2:2. Our numbers estimate xG of 0.94 for Costa Adeje Tenerife W and 1.50 for Atl. Madrid W. This points to a Costa Adeje Tenerife W double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

38%
Costa Adeje Tenerife W
28%
Draws
34%
Atl. Madrid W
Draw rate projection: 28% Favored: Costa Adeje Tenerife W

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

70% / Medium Confidence
  • Costa Adeje Tenerife W picked up more points recently compared to Atl. Madrid W.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (0.94 vs 1.50 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 74%
Over 2.5 Goals 48%
Over 3.5 Goals 29%
Over 4.5 Goals 14%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 45%
Costa Adeje Tenerife W Clean Sheet 16%
Atl. Madrid W Clean Sheet 16%
First Half Goal 67%
Second Half Goal 70%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Costa Adeje Tenerife W Atl. Madrid W
Matches Played 31 33
Wins 14 13
Draws 11 9
Losses 6 11
Goals Scored 1.42 1.64
Goals Conceded 0.81 1.52
Expected Goals (xG) 1.38 2.63
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 0.38 0.50

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 26, 2026 Liga F Women
Atl. Madrid W vs Costa Adeje Tenerife W
2:2
Mar 17, 2026 Copa de la Reina Women
Costa Adeje Tenerife W vs Atl. Madrid W
0:1
Mar 11, 2026 Copa de la Reina Women
Atl. Madrid W vs Costa Adeje Tenerife W
1:0
Nov 23, 2025 Liga F Women
Costa Adeje Tenerife W vs Atl. Madrid W
2:1
Apr 18, 2025 Liga F Women
Atl. Madrid W vs Costa Adeje Tenerife W
2:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Costa Adeje Tenerife W Compare

Avg xG / game 1.06
Avg xA / game 0.69

Atl. Madrid W Compare

Top Goalscorer Jensen S.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 2.39
Avg xA / game 1.46

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Costa Adeje Tenerife W 37 / 100
Atl. Madrid W 34 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Costa Adeje Tenerife W Atl. Madrid W

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Costa Adeje Tenerife W or Draw (1X)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Home Win (HT)
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +26.5%
3.33
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +14.2%
2.38
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Costa Adeje Tenerife W attacking → ← attacking Atl. Madrid W

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Costa Adeje Tenerife W scored in 71% of their last 31 games.

Atl. Madrid W let in goals in 73% of their last 33 matches.

Games between these two average 2.20 goals.

Costa Adeje Tenerife W went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Atl. Madrid W lost 3 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

53 Points in last 5 48
1.38 Goals expected (xG) 2.63
0.38 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 0.50