Sport Picks

Mozambique

Mocambola 2025

Desportivo de Nacala

Our Tip

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Costa do Sol host Desportivo de Nacala in the Mocambola 2025. Don't expect fireworks — both sides lean defensive. Costa do Sol have averaged 1 scored and 0.88 conceded recently, against Desportivo de Nacala's 0.33 scored and 0.83 conceded. Past meetings favor Costa do Sol slightly — 2-1-2 in wins/losses/draws. They last met on Dec 28, 2025, ending 0:0. xG projections (0.92 - 0.60) back Costa do Sol to edge this. Under markets carry more value than backing a winner outright.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

40%

Costa do Sol

33%

Draws

27%

Desportivo de Nacala

Draw rate projection: 33% Favored: Costa do Sol

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

70% / Medium Confidence

Costa do Sol carry the better recent record into this one.
Model gives Costa do Sol a 40% chance of winning this.
This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%

Over 1.5 Goals 82%

Over 2.5 Goals 78%

Over 3.5 Goals 15%

Over 4.5 Goals 7%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 69%

Costa do Sol Clean Sheet 20%

Desportivo de Nacala Clean Sheet 16%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Costa do Sol	Desportivo de Nacala
Matches Played	26	25
Wins	8	2
Draws	12	8
Losses	6	15
Goals Scored	1	0.33
Goals Conceded	0.88	0.83
Expected Goals (xG)	1.00	0.33
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	0.88	0.83

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Dec 28, 2025 Mocambola

Costa do Sol vs Desportivo de Nacala

Possession: 48% - 44% Cards: 2 - 1

0:0

Aug 31, 2025 Mocambola

Desportivo de Nacala vs Costa do Sol

Possession: 48% - 53% Cards: 1 - 1

0:0

Aug 31, 2024 Mocambola

Costa do Sol vs Desportivo de Nacala

Possession: 59% - 46% Cards: 0 - 3

1:2

May 12, 2024 Mocambola

Desportivo de Nacala vs Costa do Sol

Possession: 41% - 55% Cards: 4 - 1

0:1

Oct 30, 2019 Mocambola

Desportivo de Nacala vs Costa do Sol

Possession: 42% - 46% Cards: 2 - 1

1:2

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Costa do Sol 40 / 100

Desportivo de Nacala 28 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Costa do Sol Desportivo de Nacala

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick COS Win (1)

Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes

Correct Score 2:1

BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)

Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Desportivo de Nacala has conceded goals in 84% of their last 25 outings.

Attacking prowess: Costa do Sol scored in 62% of their last 26 outings.

Solid form: Costa do Sol remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.

Desportivo de Nacala's recent record shows 3 losses from the last 5 matches.

Scoring Trends

Costa do Sol VS Desportivo de Nacala

1 Goals Scored 0.33

0.88 Goals Conceded 0.83

50% Over 1.5 33%

50% Over 2.5 33%

13% Over 3.5 17%

League Standings

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	UD Songo	22	18	3	1	50:13	57
2	Associacao Black Bulls	23	11	6	6	35:26	39
3	Ferroviario Beira	23	10	7	6	19:13	37
4	Ferroviario Lichinga	22	9	7	6	38:31	34
5	Ferroviario Maputo	23	7	12	4	25:18	33
6	Baia de Pemba	22	9	5	8	24:21	32
7	ENH Vilankulo	24	7	10	7	22:21	31
8	Costa do Sol	23	7	10	6	18:18	31
9	Ferroviario Nacala	23	8	7	8	16:17	31
10	Chingale de Tete	22	6	9	7	22:21	27
11	Ferroviario Nampula	22	6	8	8	21:29	26
12	Textafrica	23	4	8	11	15:30	20
13	Desportivo de Nacala	20	2	6	12	13:31	12
14	Desportivo Matola	22	2	4	16	11:40	10