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Costa Rica vs Dourados

Brazil Brazil

Sul-Matogrossense 2025
Our Tip

Match Events

40' Event
Fleitux B.
(Penalty)
72' Event
Barcos G.
83' Event
Sapeka G.

AI Match Summary

Neither side could be separated in this Sul-Matogrossense 2025 matchup, with the score ending 2-2.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

24%
Costa Rica
35%
Draws
41%
Dourados
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Dourados

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

41% / Low Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Dourados lately — more wins on the board than Costa Rica.
  • Model puts this one close, with a 44% draw probability.
  • Regular Sul-Matogrossense 2025 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 70.6%
Costa Rica Clean Sheet 18%
Dourados Clean Sheet 13%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Costa Rica Dourados
Matches Played 39 34
Wins 11 13
Draws 14 12
Losses 14 9
Goals Scored 1 1.53
Goals Conceded 1.03 1.06
Expected Goals (xG) 1.13 1.31
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 4, 2026 Sul-Matogrossense
Costa Rica vs Dourados
1:1
Feb 23, 2025 Sul-Matogrossense
Costa Rica vs Dourados
2:2
Mar 24, 2024 Sul-Matogrossense
Dourados vs Costa Rica
2:1
Mar 17, 2024 Sul-Matogrossense
Costa Rica vs Dourados
0:0
Apr 10, 2022 Sul-Matogrossense
Dourados vs Costa Rica
1:5

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Costa Rica Compare

Top Goalscorer Lopes C.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.87
Avg xA / game 0.56

Dourados Compare

Top Goalscorer Barcos G.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Sapeka G.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.19
Avg xA / game 0.73

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Costa Rica 36 / 100
Dourados 21 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Costa Rica Dourados

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Dourados Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Costa Rica's goal record stands at 64% scoring rate across 39 recent games.

Dourados has conceded goals in 65% of their last 34 outings.

Games between these two average 3.00 goals.

Costa Rica went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Costa Rica VS Dourados
0.88 Goals Scored 1.5
1.13 Goals Conceded 1.38
75% Over 1.5 75%
25% Over 2.5 25%
13% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Costa Rica

(Home)
01 Mar
Costa Rica
0 : 2
Corumbaense
21 Feb
Bataguassu
2 : 0
Costa Rica
15 Feb
Costa Rica
1 : 1
Naviraiense
11 Feb
Operario MS
0 : 0
Costa Rica
08 Feb
Costa Rica
1 : 1
Aguia Negra
Page 1 of 8

Dourados

(Away)
11 Mar
Corumbaense
2 : 0
Dourados
08 Mar
Dourados
1 : 1
Corumbaense
01 Mar
Dourados
3 : 3
Clube de Regatas Aquidauana
21 Feb
Corumbaense
2 : 0
Dourados
15 Feb
Dourados
7 : 2
Bataguassu
Page 1 of 7

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Ivinhema 9 6 1 2 21:7 19
2 Pantanal 9 5 3 1 17:7 18
3 Dourados 9 5 3 1 17:7 18
4 Operario MS 9 5 1 3 11:12 16
5 Costa Rica 9 3 5 1 14:10 14
6 Aguia Negra 9 3 2 4 14:14 11
7 Naviraiense 9 2 3 4 11:14 9
8 Corumbaense 9 2 2 5 8:14 8
9 Coxim 9 2 1 6 7:18 7
10 Aquidauanense 9 1 1 7 12:29 4
Promotion - Sul-Matogrossense 2025 (Play Offs)
Promotion - Sul-Matogrossense 2025 (Play Offs)
Relegation - Sul-Matogrossense 2 (Main)