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McMillan D.
AI Match Summary
Dundalk in this FAI Cup 2017 tie, finishing 1-3. One-off knockout football delivers a decisive result.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
59%
15%
26%
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Crumlin Utd
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
59%
/ Medium Confidence
- Crumlin Utd have won more games recently than Dundalk.
- Win probability leans Crumlin Utd's way, sitting at 80%.
- Crumlin Utd have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
- Historical meetings favor Dundalk, who have won 2 of the last 3 encounters.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 81%).
- History favors Dundalk here — 2 wins from the last 3 head-to-heads.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 94%
Over 2.5 Goals 81%
Over 3.5 Goals 62.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 28%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 74.2%
Crumlin Utd Clean Sheet 11%
Dundalk Clean Sheet 10%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Crumlin Utd | Dundalk |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 29 | 32 |
| Wins | 14 | 13 |
| Draws | 1 | 7 |
| Losses | 14 | 12 |
| Goals Scored | 1.59 | 1.84 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.93 | 1.56 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.69 | 1.81 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Aug 26, 2017 FAI Cup
Crumlin Utd vs Dundalk
1:3
Aug 30, 2016 FAI Cup
Crumlin Utd vs Dundalk
0:5
Mar 19, 2012 Club Friendly
Crumlin Utd vs Dundalk
1:0
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Crumlin Utd Compare
Top Goalscorer Donnelly J.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 1.3
Avg xA / game 0.84
Dundalk Compare
Top Goalscorer McMillan D.
1 Goals Assists Leader Hoare S.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.65
Avg xA / game 1.01
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Crumlin Utd 74 / 100
Dundalk 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Crumlin Utd Dundalk
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Crumlin Utd Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Dundalk has conceded goals in 81% of their last 32 outings.
Historical meetings average 3.33 goals per match.
Crumlin Utd found the back of the net in 72% of recent matches (29 games).
Crumlin Utd went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.
Scoring Trends
Crumlin Utd VS Dundalk
2 Goals Scored 1.63
2 Goals Conceded 1.38
100% Over 1.5 88%
100% Over 2.5 75%
100% Over 3.5 25%
Recent Form & Match History
Crumlin Utd
(Home) 17 Jul
Galway United
4 : 0 Crumlin Utd
23 May
Crumlin Utd
4 : 0 Salthill
18 Jul
Drogheda
5 : 0 Crumlin Utd
16 May
Crumlin Utd
4 : 2 Lucan Utd
10 Oct
Crumlin Utd
3 : 0 Bluebell Utd
Page 1 of 6
23 May
Crumlin Utd
4 : 0 Salthill
16 May
Crumlin Utd
4 : 2 Lucan Utd
10 Oct
Crumlin Utd
3 : 0 Bluebell Utd
25 Jul
Crumlin Utd
1 : 2 St Mochta's
16 Sept
Crumlin Utd
0 : 2 Bohemians
Page 1 of 4
Dundalk
(Away) 18 Sept
Dundalk
2 : 3 Shelbourne
14 Sept
Dundalk
0 : 4 St. Patricks
11 Sept
Waterford
1 : 1 Dundalk
06 Sept
Derry City
4 : 2 Dundalk
28 Aug
Drogheda
2 : 3 Dundalk
Page 1 of 7
11 Sept
Waterford
1 : 1 Dundalk
06 Sept
Derry City
4 : 2 Dundalk
28 Aug
Drogheda
2 : 3 Dundalk
07 Aug
Shamrock Rovers
3 : 2 Dundalk
24 Jul
St. Patricks
1 : 1 Dundalk
Page 1 of 4
Tournament Bracket & Draw
1/32-finals
Dundalk -
TBD -
TBD -
Derry City -
Wexford -
TBD -
TBD -
Crumlin Utd -
Cobh Wanderers 1
Edenderry Town 0
Boyle Celtic 0
Killarney Celtic 1
Evergreen United 3
St. Marys 2
TBD -
Drogheda -
Bluebell Utd -
TBD -
Greystones United 0
Sheriff YC 3
UC Dublin -
TBD -
TBD -
Cabinteely -
Shelbourne -
TBD -
TBD -
Waterford -
Glenville -
TBD -
TBD -
Shamrock Rovers -
Limerick -
TBD -
TBD -
Cobh Ramblers -
Bohemians -
TBD -
TBD -
Finn Harps -
St. Patricks -
TBD -
TBD -
Portmarnock -
Killester Donnycarney 2
Ballymun Utd 1
TBD -
Galway United -
Longford -
TBD -
TBD -
Sligo Rovers -
Everton AFC 2
Liffey Wanderers 1
Cherry Orchard 2
Bangor Celtic 3
Athlone -
TBD -
College Corinthians 0
Ballincollig 1
Bray -
TBD -
TBD -
Cork City -
1/16-finals
Dundalk 4
Derry City 0
Wexford 1
Crumlin Utd 2
Cobh Wanderers 3
Killarney Celtic 0
Evergreen United 0
Drogheda 4
Bluebell Utd 3
Sheriff YC 0
UC Dublin 1
Cabinteely 3
Shelbourne 3
Waterford 0
Glenville 0
Shamrock Rovers 1
Limerick 3
Cobh Ramblers 0
Bohemians 3
Finn Harps 4
St. Patricks 2
Portmarnock 0
Killester Donnycarney 3
Galway United 4
Longford 4
Sligo Rovers 2
Everton AFC 2
Bangor Celtic 3
Athlone 5
Ballincollig 0
Bray 0
Cork City 1
1/8-finals
Dundalk 3
Crumlin Utd 1
Cobh Wanderers 1
Drogheda 5
Bluebell Utd 1
Cabinteely 0
Shelbourne 0
Shamrock Rovers 3
Limerick 1
Finn Harps 0
St. Patricks 0
Galway United 2
Longford 1
Bangor Celtic 0
Athlone 0
Cork City 7
Quarter-finals
Dundalk 4
Drogheda 0
Bluebell Utd 2
Shamrock Rovers 4
Limerick 2
Galway United 1
Longford 1
Cork City 4
Semi-finals
Dundalk 5
Shamrock Rovers 3
Limerick 0
Cork City 1
Final
Dundalk 1
Cork City 2
