Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Crusaders vs Ballymena

Northern Ireland Northern Ireland

NIFL Premiership 2025/2026 Seaview, Belfast
Crusaders Logo

Crusaders

3 - 2
FT
Ballymena Logo

Ballymena

Our Tip

Match Events

14' Event
Thorndike F.
17' Event
Maguire T.
(Penalty)
28'
Sub
Rocks D. In: McCallion D.
Out: Rocks D.
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Crusaders in this NIFL Premiership 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 3-2 — backing the pre-match view that favored Crusaders.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

35%
Crusaders
30%
Draws
35%
Ballymena
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

30% / Low Confidence
  • Ballymena have won more games recently than Crusaders.
  • 40% chance of a draw — the model doesn't see a clear favorite.
  • Regular NIFL Premiership 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 100%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 76.2%
Crusaders Clean Sheet 16%
Ballymena Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Crusaders Ballymena
Matches Played 31 35
Wins 14 15
Draws 6 12
Losses 11 8
Goals Scored 1.55 2
Goals Conceded 1.58 1.17
Expected Goals (xG) 1.69 1.44
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 15, 2026 NIFL Premiership
Crusaders vs Ballymena
2:1
Apr 25, 2026 NIFL Premiership
Crusaders vs Ballymena
3:2
Feb 17, 2026 NIFL Premiership
Ballymena vs Crusaders
2:0
Nov 22, 2025 NIFL Premiership
Ballymena vs Crusaders
2:2
Sep 20, 2025 NIFL Premiership
Crusaders vs Ballymena
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Crusaders Compare

Top Goalscorer Thorndike F.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.3
Avg xA / game 0.84

Ballymena Compare

Top Goalscorer Edogun S.
2 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.31
Avg xA / game 0.8

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Crusaders 31 / 100
Ballymena 28 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Crusaders Ballymena

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Crusaders scored in 81% of their last 31 outings.

Games between these two average 3.20 goals.

Ballymena's defensive record shows goals conceded in 74% of 35 matches.

Crusaders went unbeaten in 2 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Crusaders VS Ballymena
1.88 Goals Scored 1.38
1.5 Goals Conceded 1.5
100% Over 1.5 100%
88% Over 2.5 50%
25% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Crusaders

(Home)
26 Sept
Crusaders
2 : 1
Bangor FC
19 Sept
Linfield
1 : 0
Crusaders
15 Sept
Crusaders
3 : 0
Dungannon
12 Sept
Crusaders
1 : 2
Limavady
05 Sept
Coleraine
4 : 1
Crusaders
Page 1 of 7

Ballymena

(Away)
26 Sept
Ballymena
2 : 0
Portadown
19 Sept
Dungannon
1 : 1
Ballymena
15 Sept
Ballymena
1 : 1
Carrick Rangers
11 Sept
Coleraine
3 : 2
Ballymena
05 Sept
Bangor FC
2 : 2
Ballymena
Page 1 of 7

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
7 Carrick Rangers 38 15 8 15 64:58 53
8 Portadown 38 13 5 20 44:66 44
9 Ballymena 38 10 9 19 46:58 39
10 Bangor FC 38 10 9 19 41:65 39
11 Crusaders 38 10 6 22 48:81 36
12 Glenavon 38 8 4 26 37:69 28
Relegation - NIFL Premiership 2025/2026 (Relegation)
Relegation - NIFL Championship (Main)
Promotion - NIFL Premiership 2025/2026 (Conference League - Play Offs)