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Crusaders vs Ballymena - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Northern Ireland Northern Ireland

NIFL Premiership Seaview, Belfast
Our Tip

Match Events

10' Event
Rutkowski I.
27' Event
McCallion D.
Own Goal
29'
Whiteside S.

AI Match Summary

The NIFL Premiership game between Crusaders and Ballymena finished 2-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Crusaders.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

34%
Crusaders
20%
Draws
46%
Ballymena
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Ballymena

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

46% / Medium Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Crusaders come out ahead of Ballymena on wins alone.
  • Model puts this one close, with a 39% draw probability.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 94%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 25%
Over 4.5 Goals 11%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 76.6%
Crusaders Clean Sheet 15%
Ballymena Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Crusaders Ballymena
Matches Played 29 30
Wins 13 12
Draws 5 11
Losses 11 7
Goals Scored 1.48 1.9
Goals Conceded 1.69 1.23
Expected Goals (xG) 1.50 1.56
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 15, 2026 NIFL Premiership
Crusaders vs Ballymena
2:1
Apr 25, 2026 NIFL Premiership
Crusaders vs Ballymena
3:2
Feb 17, 2026 NIFL Premiership
Ballymena vs Crusaders
2:0
Nov 22, 2025 NIFL Premiership
Ballymena vs Crusaders
2:2
Sep 20, 2025 NIFL Premiership
Crusaders vs Ballymena
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Crusaders Compare

Top Goalscorer Wardell O.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.15
Avg xA / game 0.75

Ballymena Compare

Top Goalscorer Rutkowski I.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.42
Avg xA / game 0.87

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Crusaders 31 / 100
Ballymena 29 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Crusaders Ballymena

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Ballymena Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

H2H data points to 3.20 goals as a typical output.

Crusaders's goal record stands at 79% scoring rate across 29 recent games.

Ballymena has conceded goals in 73% of their last 30 outings.

Recent resilience: Crusaders stayed unbeaten in 2 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Crusaders VS Ballymena
1.63 Goals Scored 1.5
1.63 Goals Conceded 1.38
88% Over 1.5 100%
88% Over 2.5 50%
25% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Crusaders

(Home)
03 Oct
Carrick Rangers
4 : 0
Crusaders
26 Sept
Crusaders
2 : 1
Bangor FC
19 Sept
Linfield
1 : 0
Crusaders
15 Sept
Crusaders
3 : 0
Dungannon
12 Sept
Crusaders
1 : 2
Limavady
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Ballymena

(Away)
03 Oct
Cliftonville
0 : 1
Ballymena
26 Sept
Ballymena
2 : 0
Portadown
19 Sept
Dungannon
1 : 1
Ballymena
15 Sept
Ballymena
1 : 1
Carrick Rangers
11 Sept
Coleraine
3 : 2
Ballymena
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Coleraine 10 8 1 1 22:10 25
2 Linfield 9 7 1 1 12:6 22
3 Larne 6 5 1 0 12:3 16
4 Glentoran 10 5 1 4 15:10 16
5 Crusaders 10 5 0 5 15:18 15
6 Carrick Rangers 10 4 1 5 15:15 13
7 Dungannon 9 4 1 4 9:10 13
8 Ballymena 9 3 3 3 13:11 12
9 Cliftonville 10 4 0 6 12:12 12
10 Limavady 9 3 0 6 8:14 9
11 Bangor FC 10 1 2 7 10:22 5
12 Portadown 10 1 1 8 8:20 4
Promotion - NIFL Premiership (Championship Group)
Relegation - NIFL Premiership (Relegation Group)