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CSM Sacele vs Progresul Mogosoaia

Romania Romania

Liga 3 - Seria 4 2025/2026
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

The Liga 3 - Seria 4 2025/2026 game between CSM Sacele and Progresul Mogosoaia finished 2-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward CSM Sacele.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

26%
CSM Sacele
15%
Draws
59%
Progresul Mogosoaia
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Progresul Mogosoaia

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

59% / Medium Confidence
  • Progresul Mogosoaia carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Model gives Progresul Mogosoaia a 59% chance of winning this.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • History favors CSM Sacele here — 2 wins from the last 3 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 38%
Over 4.5 Goals 17%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 70.2%
CSM Sacele Clean Sheet 10%
Progresul Mogosoaia Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric CSM Sacele Progresul Mogosoaia
Matches Played 29 30
Wins 11 13
Draws 4 3
Losses 14 14
Goals Scored 1.41 1.43
Goals Conceded 1.66 1.6
Expected Goals (xG) 1.31 2.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 4, 2026 Liga 3 - Seria 4
CSM Sacele vs Progresul Mogosoaia
2:0
Mar 21, 2026 Liga 3 - Seria 4
CSM Sacele vs Progresul Mogosoaia
3:1
Oct 25, 2025 Liga 3 - Seria 4
Progresul Mogosoaia vs CSM Sacele
4:1

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

CSM Sacele 22 / 100
Progresul Mogosoaia 47 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
CSM Sacele Progresul Mogosoaia

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Progresul Mogosoaia Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Historical meetings average 3.67 goals per match.

CSM Sacele scored in 62% of their last 29 games.

Progresul Mogosoaia's defensive record shows goals conceded in 70% of 30 matches.

Solid form: CSM Sacele remains unbeaten in 1 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

CSM Sacele VS Progresul Mogosoaia
1.13 Goals Scored 2
2.25 Goals Conceded 1.5
75% Over 1.5 88%
75% Over 2.5 88%
38% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

CSM Sacele

(Home)
26 Sept
CSM Corona Brasov
4 : 0
CSM Sacele
23 Sept
CSM Sacele
3 : 4
CSO Teleajenul Valenii de Munte
19 Sept
Olimpic Zarnesti
1 : 0
CSM Sacele
12 Sept
CSM Sacele
0 : 3
Sepsi 2
04 Sept
Inter Sibiu
0 : 1
CSM Sacele
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Progresul Mogosoaia

(Away)
26 Sept
Progresul Mogosoaia
3 : 3
Cetatea Turnu Magurele
23 Sept
Omega Sport
1 : 0
Progresul Mogosoaia
19 Sept
Progresul Mogosoaia
0 : 3
Din. Bucuresti 2
12 Sept
Progresul Spartac
1 : 2
Progresul Mogosoaia
04 Sept
Progresul Mogosoaia
1 : 0
Voluntari 2
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