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Cusco vs FBC Melgar - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Peru Peru

Liga 1 Estadio Inca Garcilaso de la Vega, Cusco
Our Tip

Match Events

32'
Lagos R.
38'
Escobar J.
38'
Fuentes A.

AI Match Summary

FBC Melgar in this Liga 1 matchup, with the score ending 0-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored FBC Melgar.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

42%
Cusco
20%
Draws
38%
FBC Melgar
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Cusco

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

38% / Low Confidence
  • Cusco have won more games recently than FBC Melgar.
  • FBC Melgar are the model's pick here, at 40%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 31.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 14%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 74.6%
Cusco Clean Sheet 16%
FBC Melgar Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Cusco FBC Melgar
Matches Played 33 30
Wins 14 11
Draws 4 10
Losses 15 9
Goals Scored 1.39 1.5
Goals Conceded 1.58 1.13
Expected Goals (xG) 1.50 1.50
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 12, 2026 Liga 1
Cusco vs FBC Melgar
0:1
Apr 4, 2026 Liga 1
FBC Melgar vs Cusco
1:3
Jul 27, 2025 Liga 1
FBC Melgar vs Cusco
0:2
Feb 14, 2025 Liga 1
Cusco vs FBC Melgar
0:1
Jul 14, 2024 Liga 1
Cusco vs FBC Melgar
0:3

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Cusco Compare

Avg xG / game 1.15
Avg xA / game 0.75

FBC Melgar Compare

Top Goalscorer Cuesta B.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.36
Avg xA / game 0.83

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Cusco 28 / 100
FBC Melgar 38 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Cusco FBC Melgar

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick FBC Melgar Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Cusco's goal record stands at 76% scoring rate across 33 recent games.

FBC Melgar has conceded goals in 70% of their last 30 outings.

Games between these two average 2.20 goals.

Solid form: Cusco remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Cusco VS FBC Melgar
2.13 Goals Scored 1.5
1.5 Goals Conceded 0.88
100% Over 1.5 63%
75% Over 2.5 50%
50% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Cusco

(Home)
19 Sept
FC Cajamarca
1 : 2
Cusco
12 Sept
Cusco
0 : 1
FBC Melgar
05 Sept
Cusco
2 : 0
Moquegua
31 Aug
Cienciano
1 : 2
Cusco
23 Aug
Deportivo Garcilaso
4 : 1
Cusco
Page 1 of 7

FBC Melgar

(Away)
20 Sept
FBC Melgar
1 : 1
Sport Boys
12 Sept
Cusco
0 : 1
FBC Melgar
06 Sept
FBC Melgar
3 : 0
AD Tarma
01 Sept
Atletico Grau
1 : 0
FBC Melgar
23 Aug
FBC Melgar
1 : 1
A. Lima
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Deportivo Garcilaso 10 7 1 2 18:6 22
2 Universitario de Deportes 10 6 2 2 19:16 20
3 Sporting Cristal 10 6 1 3 20:10 19
4 Alianza Atl. 10 6 1 3 20:17 19
5 Sport Huancayo 10 6 1 3 16:13 19
6 Juan Pablo II 10 5 3 2 20:12 18
7 FBC Melgar 10 5 3 2 16:9 18
8 Sport Boys 10 5 3 2 14:7 18
9 Cusco 10 6 0 4 19:14 18
10 Atletico Grau 11 5 2 4 14:13 17
11 A. Lima 10 4 4 2 14:10 16
12 Cienciano 11 3 2 6 14:18 11
13 FC Cajamarca 10 3 1 6 18:24 10
14 Comerciantes Unidos 10 2 3 5 17:18 9
15 Los Chankas 11 2 3 6 11:24 9
16 Moquegua 11 1 4 6 7:19 7
17 AD Tarma 10 1 2 7 7:21 5
18 Cajamarca 10 0 2 8 11:24 2
Promotion - Liga 1 (Play Offs)