Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Cwmbran Celtic vs Baglan Dragons

Wales Wales

Cymru South 2025/2026
Our Tip

Match Events

6' Event
Thomas D.
72'
Pike J.

AI Match Summary

Baglan Dragons in this Cymru South 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 0-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Baglan Dragons.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

21%
Cwmbran Celtic
15%
Draws
64%
Baglan Dragons
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Baglan Dragons

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

64% / High Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Baglan Dragons lately — more wins on the board than Cwmbran Celtic.
  • Model gives Baglan Dragons a 64% chance of winning this.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 28%
Over 4.5 Goals 13%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 71.8%
Cwmbran Celtic Clean Sheet 18%
Baglan Dragons Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Cwmbran Celtic Baglan Dragons
Matches Played 30 29
Wins 1 8
Draws 7 6
Losses 22 15
Goals Scored 0.9 0.83
Goals Conceded 2.6 1.72
Expected Goals (xG) 1.38 1.34
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 24, 2026 Cymru South
Baglan Dragons vs Cwmbran Celtic
0:0
Oct 31, 2025 Cymru South
Cwmbran Celtic vs Baglan Dragons
0:1
Mar 29, 2025 Cymru South
Cwmbran Celtic vs Baglan Dragons
0:2
Sep 7, 2024 Cymru South
Baglan Dragons vs Cwmbran Celtic
4:3
Mar 9, 2024 Cymru South
Cwmbran Celtic vs Baglan Dragons
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Cwmbran Celtic Compare

Avg xG / game 1.06
Avg xA / game 0.69

Baglan Dragons Compare

Top Goalscorer Thomas D.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.22
Avg xA / game 0.74

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Cwmbran Celtic 10 / 100
Baglan Dragons 83 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Cwmbran Celtic Baglan Dragons

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Baglan Dragons Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Cwmbran Celtic found the back of the net in 63% of recent matches (30 games).

Baglan Dragons let in goals in 76% of their last 29 matches.

H2H data points to 2.40 goals as a typical output.

Cwmbran Celtic has registered 1 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Cwmbran Celtic VS Baglan Dragons
1 Goals Scored 0.25
2.43 Goals Conceded 1.75
71% Over 1.5 50%
71% Over 2.5 25%
43% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Cwmbran Celtic

(Home)
18 Apr
Cwmbran Celtic
1 : 2
Ammanford Town
11 Apr
Cwmbran Celtic
3 : 1
Aberystwyth
03 Apr
Afan Lido
4 : 1
Cwmbran Celtic
30 Mar
Cwmbran Celtic
1 : 8
Trefelin
27 Mar
Cwmbran Celtic
1 : 2
Cambrian United
Page 1 of 6

Baglan Dragons

(Away)
12 Sept
Cardiff Draconians
2 : 1
Baglan Dragons
04 Sept
Baglan Dragons
2 : 1
Afan Lido
31 Aug
Baglan Dragons
0 : 1
Caerphilly
28 Aug
Baglan Dragons
3 : 1
Caerau Ely
21 Aug
Newport City
0 : 1
Baglan Dragons
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Trefelin 30 25 3 2 83:17 78
2 Cambrian United 30 24 4 2 75:20 76
3 Ammanford Town 30 17 9 4 49:26 60
4 Caerau Ely 30 17 6 7 66:34 57
5 Carmarthen Town 30 11 12 7 45:38 45
6 Aberystwyth 30 13 5 12 35:38 44
7 Cardiff Draconians 30 12 4 14 50:48 40
8 Llantwit Major 30 9 10 11 44:47 37
9 Treowen 30 10 7 13 51:63 37
10 Newport City 30 9 10 11 36:48 37
11 Pontypridd United 30 9 7 14 46:51 34
12 Afan Lido 30 9 3 18 32:57 30
13 Trethomas Bluebirds 30 6 11 13 45:62 29
14 Baglan Dragons 30 5 10 15 26:52 25
15 Ynyshir Albions 30 5 8 17 27:56 23
16 Cwmbran Celtic 30 1 7 22 25:78 10
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