Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Cwmbran Celtic vs Llantwit Major

Wales Wales

Cymru South 2025/2026
Our Tip

Match Events

11' Event
Hinwood J.
Own Goal
27' Event
Bevan J.
(Penalty)
64' Event
Gauci C.

AI Match Summary

The Cymru South 2025/2026 game between Cwmbran Celtic and Llantwit Major finished 1-3, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Llantwit Major.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

85%
Cwmbran Celtic
15%
Draws
0%
Llantwit Major
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Cwmbran Celtic

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

85% / Very High Confidence
  • Llantwit Major carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Cwmbran Celtic are the model's pick here, at 50%.
  • Regular Cymru South 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 81%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 98%
Over 1.5 Goals 87.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 81%
Over 3.5 Goals 75.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 34%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 77%
Cwmbran Celtic Clean Sheet 10%
Llantwit Major Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Cwmbran Celtic Llantwit Major
Matches Played 30 28
Wins 1 8
Draws 7 7
Losses 22 13
Goals Scored 0.9 1.36
Goals Conceded 2.6 1.89
Expected Goals (xG) 2.13 2.06
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 10, 2026 Cymru South
Cwmbran Celtic vs Llantwit Major
1:3
Feb 14, 2026 Cymru South
Llantwit Major vs Cwmbran Celtic
3:1
Apr 12, 2025 Cymru South
Cwmbran Celtic vs Llantwit Major
1:0
Feb 22, 2025 Cymru South
Llantwit Major vs Cwmbran Celtic
2:1
Mar 16, 2024 Cymru South
Llantwit Major vs Cwmbran Celtic
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Cwmbran Celtic Compare

Top Goalscorer Challenger T.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.64
Avg xA / game 1.06

Llantwit Major Compare

Top Goalscorer Gauci C.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.87
Avg xA / game 1.14

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Cwmbran Celtic 47 / 100
Llantwit Major 22 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Cwmbran Celtic Llantwit Major

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Cwmbran Celtic Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Llantwit Major's defensive record shows goals conceded in 86% of 28 matches.

Difficult form: Llantwit Major registered 5 defeats in their last 5 games.

Cwmbran Celtic's goal record stands at 63% scoring rate across 30 recent games.

These sides typically produce 2.80 goals when they meet.

Scoring Trends

Cwmbran Celtic VS Llantwit Major
1.13 Goals Scored 1.25
2.88 Goals Conceded 3.13
75% Over 1.5 100%
75% Over 2.5 100%
63% Over 3.5 88%

Recent Form & Match History

Cwmbran Celtic

(Home)
18 Apr
Cwmbran Celtic
1 : 2
Ammanford Town
11 Apr
Cwmbran Celtic
3 : 1
Aberystwyth
03 Apr
Afan Lido
4 : 1
Cwmbran Celtic
30 Mar
Cwmbran Celtic
1 : 8
Trefelin
27 Mar
Cwmbran Celtic
1 : 2
Cambrian United
Page 1 of 6

Llantwit Major

(Away)
22 Aug
Aberystwyth
5 : 1
Llantwit Major
15 Aug
Llantwit Major
0 : 1
Baglan Dragons
07 Aug
Afan Lido
5 : 0
Llantwit Major
01 Aug
Llantwit Major
0 : 3
Pure Swansea
18 Apr
Llantwit Major
1 : 3
Cambrian United
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Trefelin 30 25 3 2 83:17 78
2 Cambrian United 30 24 4 2 75:20 76
3 Ammanford Town 30 17 9 4 49:26 60
4 Caerau Ely 30 17 6 7 66:34 57
5 Carmarthen Town 30 11 12 7 45:38 45
6 Aberystwyth 30 13 5 12 35:38 44
7 Cardiff Draconians 30 12 4 14 50:48 40
8 Llantwit Major 30 9 10 11 44:47 37
9 Treowen 30 10 7 13 51:63 37
10 Newport City 30 9 10 11 36:48 37
11 Pontypridd United 30 9 7 14 46:51 34
12 Afan Lido 30 9 3 18 32:57 30
13 Trethomas Bluebirds 30 6 11 13 45:62 29
14 Baglan Dragons 30 5 10 15 26:52 25
15 Ynyshir Albions 30 5 8 17 27:56 23
16 Cwmbran Celtic 30 1 7 22 25:78 10
Promotion - Cymru Premier (Main)