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Cwmbran Town vs Ton Pentre

Wales Wales

FA Cup 2018/2019 Cwmbran Stadium
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Cwmbran Town play Ton Pentre in the FA Cup 2018/2019. Ton Pentre are favorites here. Recently, Cwmbran Town averaged 1.13 goals scored and 2.7 conceded. Ton Pentre averaged 1.65 goals scored and 2.35 conceded. In past meetings, Cwmbran Town won 0, Ton Pentre won 1, and they drew 0. Their last match on Nov 10, 2018 ended 1:2. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.48 for Cwmbran Town and 1.88 for Ton Pentre. This points to a Ton Pentre double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

20%
Cwmbran Town
15%
Draws
65%
Ton Pentre
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Ton Pentre

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

91% / Very High Confidence
  • Cwmbran Town picked up more points recently compared to Ton Pentre.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.48 vs 1.88 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the visitors.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 84%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 92%
Over 2.5 Goals 84%
Over 3.5 Goals 50%
Over 4.5 Goals 25%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 65%
Cwmbran Town Clean Sheet 10%
Ton Pentre Clean Sheet 10%
First Half Goal 83%
Second Half Goal 87%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Cwmbran Town Ton Pentre
Matches Played 30 20
Wins 5 8
Draws 2 2
Losses 23 10
Goals Scored 1.13 1.65
Goals Conceded 2.7 2.35

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Nov 10, 2018 FA Cup
Cwmbran Town vs Ton Pentre
1:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Cwmbran Town Compare

Top Goalscorer Jenks-Gilbert M.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.35
Avg xA / game 0.88

Ton Pentre Compare

Top Goalscorer Price L.
2 Goals
Avg xG / game 0
Avg xA / game 0

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Cwmbran Town 20 / 100
Ton Pentre 61 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Cwmbran Town Ton Pentre

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Ton Pentre Win (2)
Secondary Pick Ton Pentre & Over 2.5
First Half Result Draw (HT)
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +66.6%
8.33
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +7.5%
1.28
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Cwmbran Town attacking → ← attacking Ton Pentre

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Cwmbran Town scored in 63% of their last 30 games.

Ton Pentre let in goals in 85% of their last 20 matches.

Games between these two average 3.00 goals.

Cwmbran Town went unbeaten in 2 of their last 5 games.

Ton Pentre lost 3 of their last 5 games.

Match Risk Analysis

Assessing potential disruptors and external variables affecting prediction reliability

Risk Level: Low
Risk Factor

Busy schedule: Managers might rest key players, which can affect team cohesion.

Risk Factor

Cup knockout game. Winning is all that matters, which can lead to wild tactics or extra time.

Risk Factor

Pressure: A tense match where mistakes or cards can change things quickly.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

17 Points in last 5 26
1.75 Goals expected (xG) 0.00
2.75 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 0.00