Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Defensor Sp. vs Liverpool M.

Uruguay Uruguay

Liga AUF Uruguaya Estadio Luis Franzini, Montevideo
Our Tip

Match Events

17' Event
Bentancourt R.
(Penalty)
31'
Pozzo T. A.
40'
Bentancourt R.

AI Match Summary

Liverpool M. in this Liga AUF Uruguaya matchup, with the score ending 0-4 — backing the pre-match view that favored Liverpool M..

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

9%
Defensor Sp.
30%
Draws
61%
Liverpool M.
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Liverpool M.

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

61% / High Confidence
  • Defensor Sp. haven't matched Liverpool M.'s recent run of results.
  • Model gives Liverpool M. a 61% chance of winning this.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 75.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 30%
Defensor Sp. Clean Sheet 13%
Liverpool M. Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Defensor Sp. Liverpool M.
Matches Played 29 28
Wins 6 10
Draws 11 10
Losses 12 8
Goals Scored 0.72 1.29
Goals Conceded 1.1 0.89
Expected Goals (xG) 0.56 1.69
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 16, 2026 Liga AUF Uruguaya
Defensor Sp. vs Liverpool M.
0:4
Jul 25, 2026 Liga AUF Uruguaya
Defensor Sp. vs Liverpool M.
1:2
Feb 14, 2026 Liga AUF Uruguaya
Liverpool M. vs Defensor Sp.
1:2
Aug 30, 2025 Liga AUF Uruguaya
Liverpool M. vs Defensor Sp.
2:0
Jun 14, 2025 Liga AUF Uruguaya
Defensor Sp. vs Liverpool M.
4:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Defensor Sp. Compare

Avg xG / game 0.43
Avg xA / game 0.28

Liverpool M. Compare

Top Goalscorer Barcelo F.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Romero D.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.54
Avg xA / game 0.94

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Defensor Sp. 10 / 100
Liverpool M. 95 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Defensor Sp. Liverpool M.

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Liverpool M. Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Historical meetings average 3.60 goals per match.

Defensor Sp. found the back of the net in 59% of recent matches (29 games).

Defensive concern: Liverpool M. conceded in 50% of 28 recent games.

Defensor Sp. went unbeaten in 2 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Defensor Sp. VS Liverpool M.
0.75 Goals Scored 1.75
1.63 Goals Conceded 0.38
88% Over 1.5 63%
38% Over 2.5 50%
13% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Defensor Sp.

(Home)
29 Aug
Defensor Sp.
1 : 3
Montevideo City
25 Aug
Defensor Sp.
0 : 0
Rentistas
22 Aug
Cerro Largo
1 : 1
Defensor Sp.
16 Aug
Defensor Sp.
0 : 4
Liverpool M.
09 Aug
Defensor Sp.
0 : 1
Wanderers
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Liverpool M.

(Away)
30 Aug
Cerro Largo
1 : 1
Liverpool M.
27 Aug
Fenix
0 : 2
Liverpool M.
21 Aug
Liverpool M.
4 : 0
CA Cerro
16 Aug
Defensor Sp.
0 : 4
Liverpool M.
08 Aug
Liverpool M.
1 : 0
Albion
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Liverpool M. 4 3 1 0 10:1 10
2 Montevideo City 3 3 0 0 9:2 9
3 Racing Montevideo 4 2 2 0 5:2 8
4 Boston River 4 2 2 0 6:4 8
5 Juventud 4 2 1 1 4:2 7
6 Wanderers 4 2 1 1 6:6 7
7 CA Cerro 4 2 1 1 4:6 7
8 Club Nacional 4 2 0 2 3:4 6
9 Maldonado 4 1 2 1 4:4 5
10 Cerro Largo 4 0 4 0 4:4 4
11 Penarol 3 1 1 1 2:2 4
12 Progreso 4 1 0 3 1:4 3
13 Central Esp. 4 1 0 3 2:6 3
14 Danubio 4 0 2 2 0:2 2
15 Defensor Sp. 4 0 1 3 2:9 1
16 Albion 4 0 0 4 3:7 0
Promotion - Liga AUF Uruguaya (Play Offs)