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Denbigh vs Holyhead - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Wales Wales

Cymru North
Our Tip

Match Events

8' Event
Jones S.
9' Event
Gallagher-Keenan T.
11' Event
Owen C.

AI Match Summary

The Cymru North game between Denbigh and Holyhead finished 2-4, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Holyhead.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

51%
Denbigh
15%
Draws
34%
Holyhead
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Denbigh

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

51% / Medium Confidence
  • Holyhead carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Win probability leans Denbigh's way, sitting at 70%.
  • Regular Cymru North form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 50%
Over 4.5 Goals 23%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 75%
Denbigh Clean Sheet 14%
Holyhead Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Denbigh Holyhead
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 10 11
Draws 2 5
Losses 17 13
Goals Scored 1.45 1.45
Goals Conceded 2.1 1.48
Expected Goals (xG) 1.81 1.63
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Oct 2, 2026 Cymru North
Denbigh vs Holyhead
2:4
Mar 31, 2026 Cymru North
Denbigh vs Holyhead
1:1
Nov 1, 2025 Cymru North
Holyhead vs Denbigh
3:2
Mar 22, 2019 Cymru Alliance
Holyhead vs Denbigh
2:1
Nov 23, 2018 Cymru Alliance
Denbigh vs Holyhead
3:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Denbigh Compare

Top Goalscorer Jones S.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Gallagher-Keenan T.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.39
Avg xA / game 0.91

Holyhead Compare

Top Goalscorer Owen C.
2 Goals
Assists Leader Holland C.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.48
Avg xA / game 0.91

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Denbigh 66 / 100
Holyhead 14 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Denbigh Holyhead

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Denbigh Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Holyhead let in goals in 83% of their last 29 matches.

These sides typically produce 4.00 goals when they meet.

Attacking prowess: Denbigh scored in 72% of their last 29 outings.

Away concern: Holyhead has suffered 3 losses in 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Denbigh VS Holyhead
1.5 Goals Scored 1.13
2.13 Goals Conceded 2.13
88% Over 1.5 75%
75% Over 2.5 63%
50% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Denbigh

(Home)
10 Oct
Guilsfield
0 : 2
Denbigh
02 Oct
Denbigh
2 : 4
Holyhead
26 Sept
Brickfield Rangers
2 : 0
Denbigh
11 Sept
Denbigh
5 : 2
Bala
05 Sept
Newtown
1 : 0
Denbigh
Page 1 of 6

Holyhead

(Away)
10 Oct
Holyhead
1 : 1
Caersws FC
02 Oct
Denbigh
2 : 4
Holyhead
26 Sept
Holyhead
0 : 2
Guilsfield
12 Sept
Holyhead
0 : 1
Newtown
05 Sept
Llanuwchllyn
4 : 0
Holyhead
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Brickfield Rangers 10 9 0 1 26:6 27
2 Newtown 9 7 1 1 18:3 22
3 Mold Alexandra 10 6 2 2 24:13 20
4 Porthmadog 10 6 2 2 17:11 20
5 Bala 11 6 1 4 22:20 19
6 Caersws FC 9 5 2 2 21:14 17
7 Bangor 1876 10 5 1 4 23:18 16
8 Guilsfield 10 4 4 2 16:12 16
9 Buckley 11 4 3 4 25:19 15
10 Rhyl 10 2 4 4 18:20 10
11 Llanuwchllyn 9 3 1 5 13:23 10
12 Ruthin Town 11 2 3 6 10:21 9
13 Denbigh 10 2 1 7 18:23 7
14 Holyhead 9 2 1 6 11:18 7
15 Gresford 9 2 1 6 6:21 7
16 Penrhyncoch 10 0 1 9 4:30 1
Promotion - Cymru Premier 2027/2028 (Main)