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Dender vs Cercle Brugge

Belgium Belgium

Jupiler Pro League 2025/2026 Dender Football Complex, Denderleeuw
Our Tip

Match Events

2' Event
Kondo G.
Assist: Nazinho F.
40'
Jahanbakhsh A.
41'
Sambu M.

AI Match Summary

The Jupiler Pro League 2025/2026 game between Dender and Cercle Brugge finished 1-4, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Cercle Brugge.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

80%
Dender
11%
Draws
9%
Cercle Brugge
Draw rate projection: 11% Favored: Dender

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

93% / Very High Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Cercle Brugge come out ahead of Dender on wins alone.
  • Dender are the model's pick here, at 80%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 98%
Over 1.5 Goals 87.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 44%
Over 4.5 Goals 20%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 77%
Dender Clean Sheet 10%
Cercle Brugge Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Dender Cercle Brugge
Matches Played 26 29
Wins 6 9
Draws 6 6
Losses 14 14
Goals Scored 1.13 2.25
Goals Conceded 1.75 1.75
Expected Goals (xG) 1.13 2.25
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.75 1.75

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 24, 2026 Jupiler Pro League
Cercle Brugge vs Dender
2:1
Apr 19, 2026 Jupiler Pro League
Dender vs Cercle Brugge
1:4
Mar 1, 2026 Jupiler Pro League
Cercle Brugge vs Dender
0:0
Jul 26, 2025 Jupiler Pro League
Dender vs Cercle Brugge
0:0
Jan 18, 2025 Jupiler Pro League
Dender vs Cercle Brugge
0:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Dender Compare

Top Goalscorer Mbamba N.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.87
Avg xA / game 0.56

Cercle Brugge Compare

Top Goalscorer Kondo G.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Diaby I.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 2.05
Avg xA / game 1.25

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Dender 74 / 100
Cercle Brugge 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Dender Cercle Brugge

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick DEN Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Dender's goal record stands at 73% scoring rate across 26 recent games.

Cercle Brugge has conceded goals in 79% of their last 29 outings.

These sides typically produce 1.80 goals when they meet.

Cercle Brugge's recent record shows 4 losses from the last 5 matches.

Scoring Trends

Dender VS Cercle Brugge
1.13 Goals Scored 2.25
1.75 Goals Conceded 1.75
75% Over 1.5 100%
75% Over 2.5 88%
25% Over 3.5 63%

Recent Form & Match History

Dender

(Home)
23 May
Dender
0 : 0
Lommel SK
17 May
Lommel SK
3 : 2
Dender
09 May
Waregem
2 : 1
Dender
03 May
Dender
2 : 1
RAAL La Louviere
24 Apr
Cercle Brugge
2 : 1
Dender
Page 1 of 6

Cercle Brugge

(Away)
25 Jul
Reims
3 : 0
Cercle Brugge
18 Jul
Zwolle
3 : 2
Cercle Brugge
11 Jul
Cercle Brugge
1 : 1
Lommel SK
09 May
RAAL La Louviere
4 : 1
Cercle Brugge
01 May
Cercle Brugge
2 : 3
Waregem
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
13Waregem651015:648
14Cercle Brugge631214:1141
15RAAL La Louviere61055:1334
16Dender62047:1125
Relegation - Jupiler Pro League 2025/2026 (Relegation)