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Denmark vs Lithuania

World World

Friendly International 2025 Nature Energy Park
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Denmark play Lithuania in the Friendly International 2025. It looks like a close match. Recently, Denmark averaged 1.73 goals scored and 1.03 conceded. Lithuania averaged 0.82 goals scored and 1.5 conceded. In past meetings, Denmark won 2, Lithuania won 0, and they drew 1. Their last match on Jun 10, 2025 ended 5:0. Our numbers estimate xG of 2.25 for Denmark and 1.00 for Lithuania. This points to a Denmark double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

53%
Denmark
27%
Draws
20%
Lithuania
Draw rate projection: 27% Favored: Denmark

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

85% / Very High Confidence
  • Denmark picked up more points recently compared to Lithuania.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (2.25 vs 1.00 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 90%
Over 1.5 Goals 72%
Over 2.5 Goals 49%
Over 3.5 Goals 29%
Over 4.5 Goals 15%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 41%
Denmark Clean Sheet 23%
Lithuania Clean Sheet 10%
First Half Goal 65%
Second Half Goal 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Denmark Lithuania
Matches Played 30 28
Wins 14 6
Draws 9 5
Losses 7 17
Goals Scored 1.73 0.82
Goals Conceded 1.03 1.5
Expected Goals (xG) 2.75 0.75
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.25 1.75

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jun 10, 2025 Friendly International
Denmark vs Lithuania
5:0
Aug 24, 1993 World Championship
Denmark vs Lithuania
4:0
Sep 22, 1992 World Championship
Lithuania vs Denmark
0:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Denmark Compare

Top Goalscorer Biereth M.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Eriksen C.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 2.12
Avg xA / game 1.38

Lithuania Compare

Avg xG / game 0.68
Avg xA / game 0.42

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Denmark 52 / 100
Lithuania 20 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Denmark Lithuania

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Denmark Win (1)
Secondary Pick Denmark & Under 3.5
First Half Result Home Win (HT)
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +17.7%
2.22
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +14.2%
2.33
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Denmark attacking → ← attacking Lithuania

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Denmark scored in 73% of their last 30 games.

Lithuania let in goals in 75% of their last 28 matches.

Games between these two average 3.00 goals.

Denmark went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Lithuania lost 3 of their last 5 games.

Match Risk Analysis

Assessing potential disruptors and external variables affecting prediction reliability

Risk Level: Low
Risk Factor

Busy schedule: Managers might rest key players, which can affect team cohesion.

Risk Factor

Friendly match. Both teams will likely test tactics and rotate squads rather than push for a result.

Risk Factor

Pressure: A tense match where mistakes or cards can change things quickly.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

51 Points in last 5 23
2.75 Goals expected (xG) 0.75
1.25 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.75