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Dep. A Coruna vs Atl. Madrid Prediction & H2H Stats

Spain Spain

Copa del Rey 2025/2026 Estadio Municipal de Riazor, La Coruña
Our Tip

Match Events

58'
Sub
Herrera C. In: Mulattieri S.
Out: Herrera C.
58'
Sub
Mella D. In: Cruz L.
Out: Mella D.
58'
Sub
Baena A. In: Barrios P.
Out: Baena A.

AI Match Summary

Atl. Madrid in this Copa del Rey 2025/2026 tie, finishing 0-1. One-off knockout football delivers a decisive result.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

28%
Dep. A Coruna
30%
Draws
42%
Atl. Madrid
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Atl. Madrid

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

42% / Low Confidence
  • Dep. A Coruna haven't matched Atl. Madrid's recent run of results.
  • Atl. Madrid are the model's pick here, at 50%.
  • Atl. Madrid arrive in better shape, but cup ties don't always follow form.
  • Historical meetings favor Atl. Madrid, who have won 2 of the last 5 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • These two have met 5 times recently and Atl. Madrid have taken 4 of them.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 98%
Over 1.5 Goals 87.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 31.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 14%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 76.2%
Dep. A Coruna Clean Sheet 16%
Atl. Madrid Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Dep. A Coruna Atl. Madrid
Matches Played 29 30
Wins 13 14
Draws 12 2
Losses 4 14
Goals Scored 1.45 1.8
Goals Conceded 0.93 1.57
Expected Goals (xG) 1.38 1.44
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jan 13, 2026 Copa del Rey
Dep. A Coruna vs Atl. Madrid
0:1
Apr 1, 2018 LaLiga
Atl. Madrid vs Dep. A Coruna
1:0
Nov 4, 2017 LaLiga
Dep. A Coruna vs Atl. Madrid
0:1
Mar 2, 2017 LaLiga
Dep. A Coruna vs Atl. Madrid
1:1
Sep 25, 2016 LaLiga
Atl. Madrid vs Dep. A Coruna
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Dep. A Coruna Compare

Avg xG / game 1.06
Avg xA / game 0.69

Atl. Madrid Compare

Top Goalscorer Griezmann A.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.31
Avg xA / game 0.8

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Dep. A Coruna 23 / 100
Atl. Madrid 47 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Dep. A Coruna Atl. Madrid

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Atl. Madrid Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Dep. A Coruna's goal record stands at 86% scoring rate across 29 recent games.

Atl. Madrid has conceded goals in 77% of their last 30 outings.

Dep. A Coruna has registered 4 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Historical meetings average 1.20 goals per match.

Scoring Trends

Dep. A Coruna VS Atl. Madrid
1.25 Goals Scored 1.75
1.13 Goals Conceded 1.5
75% Over 1.5 100%
25% Over 2.5 88%
25% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Dep. A Coruna

(Home)
25 Sept
Penafiel
2 : 2
Dep. A Coruna
20 Sept
Dep. A Coruna
1 : 1
Betis
16 Sept
Dep. A Coruna
0 : 1
Sevilla
13 Sept
Getafe
1 : 1
Dep. A Coruna
05 Sept
Villarreal
2 : 3
Dep. A Coruna
Page 1 of 6

Atl. Madrid

(Away)
20 Sept
Atl. Madrid
2 : 1
Real Madrid
16 Sept
Atl. Madrid
4 : 0
Osasuna
13 Sept
Real Sociedad
0 : 3
Atl. Madrid
09 Sept
Liverpool
2 : 1
Atl. Madrid
05 Sept
Ath Bilbao
3 : 0
Atl. Madrid
Page 1 of 6

Tournament Bracket & Draw

1/128-finals
Mutilvera -
TBD -
TBD -
Zaragoza -
Atletico Tordesillas -
TBD -
TBD -
Burgos CF -
Navalcarnero -
TBD -
TBD -
AD Merida -
Inter de Valdemoro 4
Univ. Julio Suarez 2
TBD -
Getafe -
Atletico Astorga -
TBD -
TBD -
Mirandes -
Caudal Deportivo -
TBD -
TBD -
Gijon -
Puente Genil -
TBD -
TBD -
FC Cartagena SAD -
Sporting Ceuta 1
Maracena 3
TBD -
Valencia -
CD Tropezon -
TBD -
TBD -
Leonesa -
Valle Egues -
TBD -
TBD -
FC Andorra -
Ciudad Cieza -
TBD -
TBD -
Cordoba -
Orihuela -
TBD -
TBD -
Levante -
Ourense CF -
TBD -
TBD -
Real Oviedo -
Constancia -
TBD -
TBD -
Girona -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Ath Bilbao -
Portugalete -
TBD -
TBD -
Valladolid -
Deportivo Getxo 2
Betis Valladolid 1
TBD -
Alaves -
CD Extremadura -
TBD -
TBD -
Las Palmas -
Toledo -
TBD -
TBD -
Sevilla -
RSD Alcala -
TBD -
TBD -
Tenerife -
Roda -
TBD -
TBD -
Granada CF -
Real Avila -
TBD -
TBD -
Real Aviles -
Campanario 0
CD Yuncos 2
TBD -
Rayo Vallecano -
Jaen -
TBD -
TBD -
Eldense -
Lorca Deportiva -
TBD -
TBD -
Almeria -
Reus FC Reddis -
TBD -
TBD -
CE Europa -
Textil Escudo 2
SD Negreira 5
TBD -
Real Sociedad -
Langreo -
TBD -
TBD -
Racing Club Ferrol -
Utebo FC -
TBD -
TBD -
Huesca -
Ebro -
TBD -
TBD -
Tarazona -
CD Sant Jordi 4
CD Lourdes 1
TBD -
Osasuna -
CD Azuaga -
TBD -
TBD -
Leganes -
UD San Fernando -
TBD -
TBD -
Albacete -
Sant Andreu -
TBD -
TBD -
Teruel -
Puerto de Vega 5
CCD Alberite 1
TBD -
Celta Vigo -
Rayo Majadahonda -
TBD -
TBD -
CF Talavera -
CD Estepona -
TBD -
TBD -
Malaga -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Real Madrid -
UD Logrones -
TBD -
TBD -
Ponferradina -
SD Logrones -
TBD -
TBD -
Racing Santander -
Antoniano -
TBD -
TBD -
Castellon -
Ciudad de Lucena -
TBD -
TBD -
Villarreal -
Guadalajara -
TBD -
TBD -
Cacereno -
La Union (Malacitano) -
TBD -
TBD -
AD Ceuta -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Barcelona -
Murcia -
TBD -
TBD -
Antequera -
UCAM Murcia -
TBD -
TBD -
Cadiz -
Torrent -
TBD -
TBD -
Torremolinos -
Atletico Melilla 0
Atletico Palma del Rio 10
TBD -
Betis -
UD Ourense -
TBD -
TBD -
Pontevedra -
Naxara -
TBD -
TBD -
Eibar -
Quintanar del Rey -
TBD -
TBD -
UD Ibiza -
Manises 2
UD Los Garres 4
TBD -
Elche -
UD Poblense -
TBD -
TBD -
Sabadell -
UD Samano -
TBD -
TBD -
Dep. A Coruna -
Numancia -
TBD -
TBD -
Arenas Getxo -
Atletic Sant Just FC 7
Atletico Calatayud 1
TBD -
Mallorca -
Baleares -
TBD -
TBD -
Gimnastic de Tarragona -
CE Atletic Lleida -
TBD -
TBD -
Espanyol -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Atl. Madrid -
1/64-finals
Mutilvera 1
Zaragoza 3
Atletico Tordesillas 1
Burgos CF 2
Navalcarnero 2
AD Merida 1
Inter de Valdemoro 0
Getafe 11
Atletico Astorga 1
Mirandes 2
Caudal Deportivo 0
Gijon 1
Puente Genil 0
FC Cartagena SAD 1
Maracena 0
Valencia 5
CD Tropezon 1
Leonesa 3
Valle Egues 1
FC Andorra 5
Ciudad Cieza 1
Cordoba 0
Orihuela 3
Levante 4
Ourense CF 4
Real Oviedo 2
Constancia 2
Girona 3
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Ath Bilbao -
Portugalete 1
Valladolid 0
Deportivo Getxo 0
Alaves 7
CD Extremadura 3
Las Palmas 1
Toledo 1
Sevilla 4
RSD Alcala 0
Tenerife 4
Roda 1
Granada CF 5
Real Avila 1
Real Aviles 0
CD Yuncos 1
Rayo Vallecano 6
Jaen 1
Eldense 3
Lorca Deportiva 0
Almeria 2
Reus FC Reddis 3
CE Europa 2
SD Negreira 0
Real Sociedad 3
Langreo 0
Racing Club Ferrol 1
Utebo FC 0
Huesca 3
Ebro 2
Tarazona 1
CD Sant Jordi 0
Osasuna 5
CD Azuaga 1
Leganes 4
UD San Fernando 0
Albacete 3
Sant Andreu 2
Teruel 1
Puerto de Vega 0
Celta Vigo 2
Rayo Majadahonda 1
CF Talavera 4
CD Estepona 1
Malaga 3
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Real Madrid -
UD Logrones 1
Ponferradina 3
SD Logrones 0
Racing Santander 4
Antoniano 1
Castellon 0
Ciudad de Lucena 0
Villarreal 6
Guadalajara 2
Cacereno 1
La Union (Malacitano) 0
AD Ceuta 2
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Barcelona -
Murcia 2
Antequera 1
UCAM Murcia 1
Cadiz 3
Torrent 3
Torremolinos 1
Atletico Palma del Rio 1
Betis 7
UD Ourense 1
Pontevedra 2
Naxara 2
Eibar 4
Quintanar del Rey 2
UD Ibiza 1
UD Los Garres 0
Elche 4
UD Poblense 1
Sabadell 2
UD Samano 1
Dep. A Coruna 5
Numancia 3
Arenas Getxo 0
Atletic Sant Just FC 0
Mallorca 2
Baleares 2
Gimnastic de Tarragona 0
CE Atletic Lleida 1
Espanyol 2
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Atl. Madrid -
1/32-finals
Zaragoza 0
Burgos CF 1
Navalcarnero 2
Getafe 3
Mirandes 0
Gijon 2
FC Cartagena SAD 1
Valencia 2
Leonesa 4
FC Andorra 2
Ciudad Cieza 0
Levante 1
Ourense CF 2
Girona 1
TBD -
Ath Bilbao -
Portugalete 0
Alaves 3
CD Extremadura 1
Sevilla 2
Tenerife 0
Granada CF 1
Real Avila 1
Rayo Vallecano 2
Eldense 2
Almeria 1
Reus FC Reddis 0
Real Sociedad 2
Racing Club Ferrol 0
Huesca 2
Ebro 3
Osasuna 5
Leganes 1
Albacete 2
Sant Andreu 1
Celta Vigo 2
CF Talavera 2
Malaga 1
TBD -
Real Madrid -
Ponferradina 1
Racing Santander 2
Antoniano 1
Villarreal 2
Guadalajara 1
AD Ceuta 0
TBD -
Barcelona -
Murcia 3
Cadiz 2
Torrent 1
Betis 4
Pontevedra 0
Eibar 3
Quintanar del Rey 1
Elche 2
Sabadell 0
Dep. A Coruna 2
Numancia 2
Mallorca 3
Baleares 1
Espanyol 0
TBD -
Atl. Madrid -
1/16-finals
Burgos CF 3
Getafe 1
Gijon 0
Valencia 2
Leonesa 1
Levante 0
Ourense CF 0
Ath Bilbao 1
Alaves 1
Sevilla 0
Granada CF 1
Rayo Vallecano 3
Eldense 1
Real Sociedad 2
Huesca 2
Osasuna 4
Albacete 3
Celta Vigo 2
CF Talavera 2
Real Madrid 3
Racing Santander 2
Villarreal 1
Guadalajara 0
Barcelona 2
Murcia 0
Betis 2
Eibar 0
Elche 1
Dep. A Coruna 1
Mallorca 0
Baleares 2
Atl. Madrid 3
1/8-finals
Burgos CF 0
Valencia 2
Leonesa 3
Ath Bilbao 4
Alaves 2
Rayo Vallecano 0
Real Sociedad 3
Osasuna 2
Albacete 3
Real Madrid 2
Racing Santander 0
Barcelona 2
Betis 2
Elche 1
Dep. A Coruna 0
Atl. Madrid 1
Quarter-finals
Albacete 1
Barcelona 2
Betis 0
Atl. Madrid 5
Valencia 1
Ath Bilbao 2
Alaves 2
Real Sociedad 3
Semi-finals
Barcelona 3
Atl. Madrid 4
Ath Bilbao 0
Real Sociedad 2
Final
Atl. Madrid 2
Real Sociedad 3