Sport Picks

South America

Copa Sudamericana Estadio Alejandro Serrano Aguilar

Recoleta

Our Tip

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Heatmaps Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Dep. Cuenca play Recoleta in the Copa Sudamericana. It looks like a close match. Recently, Dep. Cuenca averaged 1.17 goals scored and 0.97 conceded. Recoleta averaged 1.43 goals scored and 1.27 conceded. In past meetings, Dep. Cuenca won 0, Recoleta won 0, and they drew 2. Their last match on May 20, 2026 ended 2:2. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.31 for Dep. Cuenca and 1.38 for Recoleta. This points to a Dep. Cuenca double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

40%

Dep. Cuenca

29%

Draws

31%

Recoleta

Draw rate projection: 29% Favored: Dep. Cuenca

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

73% / Medium Confidence

Dep. Cuenca picked up more points recently compared to Recoleta.
Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.31 vs 1.38 xG).
Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%

Over 1.5 Goals 66%

Over 2.5 Goals 46%

Over 3.5 Goals 28%

Over 4.5 Goals 14%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 54%

Dep. Cuenca Clean Sheet 17%

Recoleta Clean Sheet 10%

First Half Goal 59%

Second Half Goal 63%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Dep. Cuenca	Recoleta
Matches Played	29	30
Wins	14	10
Draws	7	10
Losses	8	10
Goals Scored	1.17	1.43
Goals Conceded	0.97	1.27
Expected Goals (xG)	1.00	1.50
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	1.25	1.63

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 20, 2026 Copa Sudamericana

Dep. Cuenca vs Recoleta

Possession: 57% - 60% Cards: 4 - 1

2:2

Apr 29, 2026 Copa Sudamericana

Recoleta vs Dep. Cuenca

Possession: 50% - 46% Cards: 1 - 3

0:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Dep. Cuenca Compare

Top Goalscorer Gonzalez D.

1 Goals

Avg xG / game 0.77

Avg xA / game 0.5

Recoleta Compare

Top Goalscorer Rios P.

1 Goals

Assists Leader Noguera J.

1 Ast

Avg xG / game 1.36

Avg xA / game 0.83

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Dep. Cuenca 39 / 100

Recoleta 30 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Dep. Cuenca Recoleta

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Dep. Cuenca or Draw (1X)

Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals

First Half Result Home Win (HT)

BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)

Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win

Value Edge +25.2%

3.13

Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals

Value Edge +15%

2.50

*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Dep. Cuenca attacking → ← attacking Recoleta

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Dep. Cuenca scored in 72% of their last 29 games.

Recoleta let in goals in 77% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 2.00 goals.

Dep. Cuenca went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Recoleta lost 2 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

49 Points in last 5 40

1.00 Goals expected (xG) 1.50

1.25 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.63

League Standings

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Macara	6	2	4	0	6:3	10
2	Tigre	6	2	3	1	8:5	9
3	America De Cali	6	2	3	1	6:5	9
4	Alianza Atl.	6	0	2	4	2:9	2

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Atletico-MG	6	3	1	2	8:6	10
2	Cienciano	6	2	2	2	5:7	8
3	Juventud	6	1	4	1	10:7	7
4	Academia Puerto Cabello	6	2	1	3	6:9	7

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Sao Paulo	6	3	3	0	6:1	12
2	O Higgins	6	3	1	2	8:6	10
3	Millonarios	6	2	2	2	7:7	8
4	Boston River	6	1	0	5	5:12	3

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Recoleta	6	1	5	0	6:5	8
2	Santos	6	1	4	1	8:6	7
3	San Lorenzo	6	1	4	1	6:5	7
4	Dep. Cuenca	6	1	3	2	3:7	6

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Botafogo RJ	6	5	1	0	15:5	16
2	Caracas	6	2	3	1	9:9	9
3	Racing Club	6	2	2	2	11:9	8
4	Independiente	6	0	0	6	3:15	0

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Montevideo City	6	4	1	1	11:5	13
2	Gremio	6	3	2	1	8:3	11
3	Deportivo Riestra	6	1	2	3	4:10	5
4	Palestino	6	0	3	3	1:6	3

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Olimpia Asuncion	6	4	1	1	10:6	13
2	Vasco	6	3	1	2	10:6	10
3	A. Italiano	6	2	1	3	7:9	7
4	Barracas Central	6	0	3	3	2:8	3

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	River Plate	6	4	2	0	9:3	14
2	Bragantino	6	3	1	2	12:5	10
3	Carabobo	6	3	0	3	6:5	9
4	Blooming	6	0	1	5	3:17	1