Sport Picks

Argentina

Primera B Jose Manuel Moreno Stadium

Real Pilar

Our Tip

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Heatmaps Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Dep. Merlo play Real Pilar in the Primera B. It looks like a close match. Recently, Dep. Merlo averaged 1.14 goals scored and 1.39 conceded. Real Pilar averaged 1.09 goals scored and 1.03 conceded. In past meetings, Dep. Merlo won 2, Real Pilar won 1, and they drew 2. Their last match on Mar 4, 2026 ended 1:3. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.13 for Dep. Merlo and 1.38 for Real Pilar. This points to a Dep. Merlo double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

33%

Dep. Merlo

35%

Draws

32%

Real Pilar

Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Dep. Merlo

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

69% / Medium Confidence

Dep. Merlo picked up more points recently compared to Real Pilar.
Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.13 vs 1.38 xG).
Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%

Over 1.5 Goals 68%

Over 2.5 Goals 38%

Over 3.5 Goals 23%

Over 4.5 Goals 11%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 53%

Dep. Merlo Clean Sheet 17%

Real Pilar Clean Sheet 13%

First Half Goal 61%

Second Half Goal 65%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Dep. Merlo	Real Pilar
Matches Played	28	33
Wins	9	12
Draws	10	11
Losses	9	10
Goals Scored	1.14	1.09
Goals Conceded	1.39	1.03
Expected Goals (xG)	1.25	0.75
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	2.00	1.00

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 4, 2026 Primera B

Real Pilar vs Dep. Merlo

Possession: 48% - 40% Cards: 0 - 3

1:3

Oct 4, 2025 Primera B

Real Pilar vs Dep. Merlo

Possession: 53% - 49% Cards: 3 - 0

0:0

May 18, 2025 Primera B

Dep. Merlo vs Real Pilar

Possession: 45% - 52% Cards: 4 - 2

1:0

Dec 19, 2020 Primera C

Dep. Merlo vs Real Pilar

Possession: 58% - 53% Cards: 1 - 3

0:1

May 2, 2020 Primera C

Dep. Merlo vs Real Pilar

Possession: 53% - 54% Cards: 3 - 2

0:0

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Dep. Merlo 33 / 100

Real Pilar 31 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Dep. Merlo Real Pilar

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Dep. Merlo or Draw (1X)

Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals

First Half Result Home Win (HT)

BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)

Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win

Value Edge +32%

4.00

Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals

Value Edge +18.9%

3.13

*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Dep. Merlo attacking → ← attacking Real Pilar

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Dep. Merlo scored in 71% of their last 28 games.

Real Pilar let in goals in 73% of their last 33 matches.

Games between these two average 1.20 goals.

Dep. Merlo went unbeaten in 1 of their last 5 games.

Real Pilar lost 1 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

37 Points in last 5 47

1.25 Goals expected (xG) 0.75

2.00 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.00

League Standings

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Excursionistas	23	13	6	4	34:15	45
2	Talleres Remedios Escalada	23	13	6	4	26:10	45
3	Arsenal Sarandi	23	12	8	3	33:17	44
4	Villa Dalmine	23	12	7	4	28:13	43
5	Deportivo Camioneros	23	11	8	4	27:15	41
6	Sportivo Italiano	23	9	8	6	23:20	35
7	Real Pilar	23	9	7	7	25:24	34
8	Deportivo Armenio	23	9	5	9	25:27	32
9	San Martin Burzaco	23	7	10	6	23:20	31
10	Comunicaciones	23	8	7	8	26:25	31
11	Argentino de Merlo	23	8	7	8	21:21	31
12	Laferrere	23	8	7	8	25:29	31
13	Dep. Merlo	23	8	7	8	27:35	31
14	Dock Sud	23	6	9	8	24:22	27
15	Argentino de Quilmes	23	6	9	8	24:25	27
16	CSD Liniers	23	6	8	9	16:23	26
17	Defensores Unidos	23	5	9	9	19:24	24
18	Brown Adrogue	23	5	8	10	16:27	23
19	UAI Urquiza	23	3	13	7	12:20	22
20	Flandria	23	6	4	13	18:30	22
21	Villa San Carlos	23	4	9	10	24:30	21
22	Ituzaingo	23	1	6	16	17:41	9