Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Dep. Pasto vs Once Caldas

Colombia Colombia

Primera A Estadio Departamental Libertad, Pasto
Sun, Sep 20, 2026
VS
01:15 AM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Dep. Pasto host Once Caldas in the Primera A. Recent head-to-head results give a strong hint here. Dep. Pasto have averaged 1.25 scored and 1.54 conceded recently, against Once Caldas's 1.64 scored and 1.11 conceded. Past meetings favor Once Caldas slightly — 1-4-0 in wins/losses/draws. They last met on Mar 13, 2026, ending 4:2. xG projections (0.88 - 1.13) back Once Caldas to edge this. The model calls this a Draw — both sides look evenly matched.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

29%
Dep. Pasto
20%
Draws
51%
Once Caldas
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Once Caldas

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

20% / Low Confidence
  • Once Caldas carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Model puts this one close, with a 40% draw probability.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
  • History favors Once Caldas here — 4 wins from the last 5 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 38%
Over 3.5 Goals 12.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 73.8%
Dep. Pasto Clean Sheet 20%
Once Caldas Clean Sheet 17%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Dep. Pasto Once Caldas
Matches Played 28 28
Wins 8 12
Draws 6 10
Losses 14 6
Goals Scored 1.25 1.64
Goals Conceded 1.54 1.11
Expected Goals (xG) 0.88 1.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 13, 2026 Primera A
Once Caldas vs Dep. Pasto
4:2
Nov 9, 2025 Primera A
Once Caldas vs Dep. Pasto
1:0
Oct 2, 2025 Copa Colombia
Once Caldas vs Dep. Pasto
4:0
Aug 29, 2025 Copa Colombia
Dep. Pasto vs Once Caldas
1:2
May 18, 2025 Primera A
Dep. Pasto vs Once Caldas
2:1

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Dep. Pasto 32 / 100
Once Caldas 30 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Dep. Pasto Once Caldas

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Historical meetings average 3.40 goals per match.

Attacking prowess: Dep. Pasto scored in 71% of their last 28 outings.

Once Caldas has conceded goals in 71% of their last 28 outings.

Solid form: Dep. Pasto remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Dep. Pasto VS Once Caldas
0.75 Goals Scored 0.75
1.5 Goals Conceded 1
63% Over 1.5 63%
38% Over 2.5 25%
25% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Dep. Pasto

(Home)
15 Sept
America De Cali
0 : 1
Dep. Pasto
10 Sept
Dep. Pasto
1 : 4
Ind. Medellin
05 Sept
Cucuta
2 : 2
Dep. Pasto
31 Aug
Dep. Pasto
1 : 2
Dep. Pereira
28 Aug
Inter Bogotá
1 : 1
Dep. Pasto
Page 1 of 6

Once Caldas

(Away)
16 Sept
Once Caldas
1 : 0
Deportes Tolima
13 Sept
Once Caldas
1 : 2
Dep. Cali
10 Sept
Once Caldas
1 : 0
Alianza
05 Sept
Chico
2 : 0
Once Caldas
02 Sept
Fortaleza C.E.I.F.
1 : 2
Once Caldas
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 America De Cali 9 6 2 1 20:5 20
2 Atl. Nacional 7 6 0 1 17:6 18
3 Ind. Medellin 8 5 1 2 15:10 16
4 Millonarios 10 4 4 2 12:8 16
5 Deportes Tolima 9 5 1 3 12:10 16
6 Bucaramanga 8 3 5 0 12:8 14
7 Santa Fe 8 3 4 1 12:9 13
8 Dep. Cali 8 3 3 2 11:8 12
9 Once Caldas 9 3 3 3 13:11 12
10 Aguilas Doradas 8 2 5 1 12:12 11
11 Llaneros 9 3 2 4 11:12 11
12 Inter Bogotá 10 2 5 3 13:15 11
13 Cucuta 9 2 3 4 9:15 9
14 Fortaleza C.E.I.F. 9 1 5 3 10:12 8
15 Alianza 9 2 2 5 8:16 8
16 Chico 8 2 2 4 7:15 8
17 Jaguares de Cordoba 8 1 4 3 9:14 7
18 Dep. Pereira 8 1 4 3 6:11 7
19 Dep. Pasto 9 1 2 6 8:15 5
20 Junior 7 0 3 4 8:13 3
Promotion - Primera A (Clausura - Quadrangular)