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Dep. Pasto W vs Fortaleza W

Colombia Colombia

Liga Women 2025 Estadio Departamental Libertad
Our Tip

Match Events

4' Event
Pulgarin L.
Assist: Contreras K.
8' Event
Martinez D.
21'
Olarte A.

AI Match Summary

Dep. Pasto W in this Liga Women 2025 matchup, with the score ending 4-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Dep. Pasto W.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

36%
Dep. Pasto W
44%
Draws
20%
Fortaleza W
Draw rate projection: 44% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

71% / Medium Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Dep. Pasto W lately — more wins on the board than Fortaleza W.
  • 44% chance of a draw — the model doesn't see a clear favorite.
  • Regular Liga Women 2025 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
  • History favors Fortaleza W here — 3 wins from the last 4 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 69%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 32%
Dep. Pasto W Clean Sheet 19%
Fortaleza W Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Dep. Pasto W Fortaleza W
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 6 5
Draws 9 9
Losses 15 16
Goals Scored 0.5 0.88
Goals Conceded 1.63 1.38
Expected Goals (xG) 0.50 0.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.63 1.38

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 10, 2026 Liga Women
Dep. Pasto W vs Fortaleza W
1:2
May 24, 2025 Liga Women
Dep. Pasto W vs Fortaleza W
4:0
Mar 24, 2018 Liga Women
Dep. Pasto W vs Fortaleza W
0:3
Feb 17, 2018 Liga Women
Fortaleza W vs Dep. Pasto W
3:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Dep. Pasto W Compare

Top Goalscorer Pulgarin L.
2 Goals
Assists Leader Martinez D.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.38
Avg xA / game 0.25

Fortaleza W Compare

Avg xG / game 0.8
Avg xA / game 0.49

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Dep. Pasto W 36 / 100
Fortaleza W 32 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Dep. Pasto W Fortaleza W

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick FOR Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Fortaleza W's defensive record shows goals conceded in 80% of 30 matches.

Historical meetings average 3.25 goals per match.

Attacking prowess: Dep. Pasto W scored in 70% of their last 30 outings.

Away concern: Fortaleza W has suffered 2 losses in 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Dep. Pasto W VS Fortaleza W
0.5 Goals Scored 0.88
1.63 Goals Conceded 1.38
63% Over 1.5 75%
50% Over 2.5 38%
25% Over 3.5 25%

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Dep. Cali W16122235:738
2Indep. Santa Fe W16112332:1235
3Atl. Nacional W1678122:1029
4Ind. Medellin W1692524:1429
5Inter Palmira W1683519:1827
6America de Cali W1675419:1326
7Orsomarso W1674523:1425
8Millonarios W1666425:2024
9Inter Bogotá W1666414:924
10Dep. Pasto W1665521:1723
11Junior W1635821:3714
12Real Santander W162779:1813
13Once Caldas W1626812:2312
14Alianza W16311215:3710
15Fortaleza W16241012:3710
16Bucaramanga W161695:229