Sport Picks
Deportes Tolima vs Atl. Nacional
Colombia
Primera A Estadio Manuel Murillo Toro, Ibagué 
Match Events
17'
17'
Garcia S.
29'
29'
Angulo A.
32'
32'
Angulo A.
AI Match Summary
First leg ended 3-1. The second leg ended 0-1.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
33%
20%
47%
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Atl. Nacional
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
20%
/ Low Confidence
- Deportes Tolima haven't matched Atl. Nacional's recent run of results.
- Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 40%.
- Atl. Nacional arrive in better shape, but cup ties don't always follow form.
- Historical meetings favor Atl. Nacional, who have won 1 of the last 5 encounters.
- Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 38%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 69.4%
Deportes Tolima Clean Sheet 13%
Atl. Nacional Clean Sheet 17%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Deportes Tolima | Atl. Nacional |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 32 | 30 |
| Wins | 14 | 21 |
| Draws | 6 | 2 |
| Losses | 12 | 7 |
| Goals Scored | 1.22 | 1.9 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.09 | 0.93 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 0.88 | 1.69 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
May 23, 2026 Primera A
Atl. Nacional vs Deportes Tolima
3:1
May 16, 2026 Primera A
Deportes Tolima vs Atl. Nacional
0:1
Mar 2, 2026 Primera A
Deportes Tolima vs Atl. Nacional
1:0
Aug 2, 2025 Primera A
Deportes Tolima vs Atl. Nacional
0:0
Mar 20, 2025 Primera A
Atl. Nacional vs Deportes Tolima
4:3
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Deportes Tolima Compare
Avg xG / game 0.68
Avg xA / game 0.44
Atl. Nacional Compare
Top Goalscorer Morelos A.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 1.54
Avg xA / game 0.94
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Deportes Tolima 31 / 100
Atl. Nacional 30 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Deportes Tolima Atl. Nacional
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Deportes Tolima's goal record stands at 69% scoring rate across 32 recent games.
Atl. Nacional has conceded goals in 67% of their last 30 outings.
Historical meetings average 2.60 goals per match.
Solid form: Deportes Tolima remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.
Scoring Trends
Deportes Tolima VS Atl. Nacional
0.75 Goals Scored 2.25
1.13 Goals Conceded 1
50% Over 1.5 100%
38% Over 2.5 63%
13% Over 3.5 25%
Recent Form & Match History
Deportes Tolima
(Home) 20 Sept
Deportes Tolima
1 : 1 America De Cali
16 Sept
Once Caldas
1 : 0 Deportes Tolima
12 Sept
Santa Fe
1 : 0 Deportes Tolima
07 Sept
Llaneros
1 : 2 Deportes Tolima
01 Sept
Deportes Tolima
2 : 1 Cucuta
Page 1 of 7
20 Sept
Deportes Tolima
1 : 1 America De Cali
01 Sept
Deportes Tolima
2 : 1 Cucuta
22 Aug
Deportes Tolima
0 : 0 Bucaramanga
19 Aug
Deportes Tolima
0 : 1 Independiente del Valle
08 Aug
Deportes Tolima
2 : 1 Inter Bogotá
Page 1 of 4
Atl. Nacional
(Away) 25 Sept
Atl. Nacional
1 : 1 Millonarios
21 Sept
Llaneros
2 : 0 Atl. Nacional
17 Sept
Inter Bogotá
2 : 3 Atl. Nacional
13 Sept
Atl. Nacional
2 : 0 Aguilas Doradas
08 Sept
Atl. Nacional
3 : 0 Dep. Cali
Page 1 of 6
21 Sept
Llaneros
2 : 0 Atl. Nacional
17 Sept
Inter Bogotá
2 : 3 Atl. Nacional
30 Aug
Alianza
1 : 5 Atl. Nacional
23 Aug
Fortaleza C.E.I.F.
1 : 2 Atl. Nacional
10 Aug
America De Cali
1 : 0 Atl. Nacional
Page 1 of 4
Tournament Bracket & Draw
Quarter-finals
Atl. Nacional 9
Inter Bogotá 2
Dep. Pasto 0
Deportes Tolima 3
Junior 3
Once Caldas 2
America De Cali 1
Santa Fe 5
Semi-finals
Atl. Nacional 4
Deportes Tolima 1
Junior 2
Santa Fe 1
Final
Atl. Nacional 1
Junior 3
