Sport Picks
Deportes Tolima vs Independiente del Valle
South America
Copa Libertadores Estadio Manuel Murillo Toro, Ibagué 
Match Events
11'
11'
Rodriguez A.
Assist: Pata E.
19'
19'
Sub
Rovira B. In: Sanchez L.
Out: Rovira B.
31'
31'
Hernandez J.
AI Match Summary
First leg ended 3-1. This leg finished 0-1.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
33%
20%
47%
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Independiente del Valle
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
47%
/ Medium Confidence
- Form's been kind to Independiente del Valle lately — more wins on the board than Deportes Tolima.
- Model puts this one close, with a 39% draw probability.
- Independiente del Valle arrive in better shape, but cup ties don't always follow form.
- Historical meetings favor Independiente del Valle, who have won 1 of the last 4 encounters.
- Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 69%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 31.200000000000003%
Deportes Tolima Clean Sheet 15%
Independiente del Valle Clean Sheet 68%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Deportes Tolima | Independiente del Valle |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 28 | 29 |
| Wins | 11 | 23 |
| Draws | 5 | 2 |
| Losses | 12 | 4 |
| Goals Scored | 1.11 | 2.38 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.18 | 0.93 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.13 | 1.56 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Aug 26, 2026 Copa Libertadores
Independiente del Valle vs Deportes Tolima
3:1
Aug 19, 2026 Copa Libertadores
Deportes Tolima vs Independiente del Valle
0:1
May 5, 2022 Copa Libertadores
Deportes Tolima vs Independiente del Valle
1:0
Apr 14, 2022 Copa Libertadores
Independiente del Valle vs Deportes Tolima
2:2
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Deportes Tolima Compare
Avg xG / game 0.87
Avg xA / game 0.56
Independiente del Valle Compare
Top Goalscorer Rodriguez A.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 1.42
Avg xA / game 0.87
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Deportes Tolima 31 / 100
Independiente del Valle 41 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Deportes Tolima Independiente del Valle
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Independiente del Valle Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Deportes Tolima scored in 64% of their last 28 games.
Historical meetings average 2.50 goals per match.
Deportes Tolima has registered 3 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.
Independiente del Valle let in goals in 55% of their last 29 matches.
Scoring Trends
Deportes Tolima VS Independiente del Valle
0.75 Goals Scored 2
1.13 Goals Conceded 1.5
50% Over 1.5 88%
38% Over 2.5 75%
13% Over 3.5 63%
Recent Form & Match History
Deportes Tolima
(Home) 20 Sept
Deportes Tolima
1 : 1 America De Cali
16 Sept
Once Caldas
1 : 0 Deportes Tolima
12 Sept
Santa Fe
1 : 0 Deportes Tolima
07 Sept
Llaneros
1 : 2 Deportes Tolima
01 Sept
Deportes Tolima
2 : 1 Cucuta
Page 1 of 6
20 Sept
Deportes Tolima
1 : 1 America De Cali
01 Sept
Deportes Tolima
2 : 1 Cucuta
22 Aug
Deportes Tolima
0 : 0 Bucaramanga
19 Aug
Deportes Tolima
0 : 1 Independiente del Valle
08 Aug
Deportes Tolima
2 : 1 Inter Bogotá
Page 1 of 3
Independiente del Valle
(Away) 25 Sept
Gualaceo
0 : 2 Independiente del Valle
18 Sept
Flamengo RJ
1 : 1 Independiente del Valle
13 Sept
Libertad
2 : 3 Independiente del Valle
11 Sept
Independiente del Valle
0 : 2 Flamengo RJ
05 Sept
Independiente del Valle
3 : 1 Macara
Page 1 of 6
25 Sept
Gualaceo
0 : 2 Independiente del Valle
18 Sept
Flamengo RJ
1 : 1 Independiente del Valle
13 Sept
Libertad
2 : 3 Independiente del Valle
03 Sept
Barcelona SC
2 : 1 Independiente del Valle
22 Aug
Leones del Norte
2 : 3 Independiente del Valle
Page 1 of 3
Tournament Bracket & Draw
1/8-finals
Estudiantes L.P. 4
U. Catolica 1
Rosario Central 0
Corinthians 1
Deportes Tolima 1
Independiente del Valle 4
Cruzeiro 2
Flamengo RJ 3
Mirassol 1
LDU Quito 2
Palmeiras 2
Cerro Porteno 1
Platense 2
Coquimbo 1
Fluminense 2
Ind. Rivadavia 1
Quarter-finals
Estudiantes L.P. 2
Corinthians 1
Independiente del Valle 1
Flamengo RJ 3
LDU Quito 3
Palmeiras 4
Platense 2
Fluminense 3
Semi-finals
Estudiantes L.P. -
Flamengo RJ -
Palmeiras -
Fluminense -
Final
TBD -
TBD -
