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Deportiva Venados vs Celaya - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Mexico Mexico

Primera Premier
Sat, Sep 26, 2026
2 - 3
11:00 PM
Our Tip

Match Events

2' Event
16' Event
21' Event

AI Match Summary

The Primera Premier game between Deportiva Venados and Celaya finished 2-3, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Celaya.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

23%
Deportiva Venados
30%
Draws
47%
Celaya
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Celaya

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

47% / Medium Confidence
  • Celaya have managed 1.83 goals a game lately — Deportiva Venados are scoring more at 2.3.
  • 47% — that's where the model lands on Celaya taking it.
  • Regular Primera Premier form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 81.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 34.400000000000006%
Deportiva Venados Clean Sheet 18%
Celaya Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Deportiva Venados Celaya
Matches Played 30 29
Wins 17 17
Draws 8 6
Losses 5 6
Goals Scored 2.3 1.83
Goals Conceded 1.13 1.03
Expected Goals (xG) 1.25 1.31
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 26, 2026 Primera Premier
Deportiva Venados vs Celaya
2:3
Feb 7, 2026 Liga Premier Serie A
Deportiva Venados vs Celaya
1:1
Sep 21, 2025 Liga Premier Serie A
Celaya vs Deportiva Venados
1:2

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Deportiva Venados 23 / 100
Celaya 59 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Deportiva Venados Celaya

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Celaya Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Deportiva Venados scored in 90% of their last 30 outings.

These sides typically produce 3.33 goals when they meet.

Deportiva Venados has registered 3 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Celaya has conceded goals in 52% of their last 29 outings.

Scoring Trends

Deportiva Venados VS Celaya
1.5 Goals Scored 1.88
0.75 Goals Conceded 1
75% Over 1.5 88%
25% Over 2.5 63%
13% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Deportiva Venados

(Home)
03 Oct
Inter Playa Del Carmen
3 : 1
Deportiva Venados
26 Sept
Deportiva Venados
2 : 3
Celaya
19 Sept
Racing de Veracruz
3 : 3
Deportiva Venados
12 Sept
Deportiva Venados
2 : 0
Jaguares De Chiapas
30 Aug
Montaneses
1 : 1
Deportiva Venados
Page 1 of 6

Celaya

(Away)
06 Oct
Celaya
0 : 1
Jaguares De Chiapas
26 Sept
Deportiva Venados
2 : 3
Celaya
20 Sept
Celaya
2 : 1
Montaneses
12 Sept
Chapulineros
1 : 1
Celaya
06 Sept
Celaya
2 : 0
Tapachula
Page 1 of 6

League Standings (Group 1)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Irapuato 5 5 0 0 13:4 16
2 Reboceros de La Piedad 5 4 0 1 10:6 11
3 Tigres de Alica 6 3 2 1 9:6 11
4 Zacatepec 6 3 1 2 8:7 11
5 Los Cabos United 6 3 0 3 6:7 9
6 Cordobes FC 5 1 1 3 4:7 4
7 Lobos ULMX 5 1 1 3 5:9 4
8 Tritones Vallarta 5 0 2 3 3:6 2
9 Purepechas 5 0 1 4 1:7 1
Promotion - Primera Premier (Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 2)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Racing de Veracruz 5 3 2 0 16:6 13
2 Pioneros 5 4 0 1 14:6 13
3 Celaya 6 4 1 1 10:5 13
4 Jaguares De Chiapas 5 2 1 2 5:5 8
5 Deportiva Venados 5 1 2 2 9:9 6
6 Montaneses 6 2 1 3 9:12 6
7 Chapulineros 6 1 2 3 7:13 5
8 Inter Playa Del Carmen 5 1 1 3 6:11 4
9 Tapachula 5 1 0 4 5:14 3
Promotion - Primera Premier (Play Offs)