Sport Picks

Mexico

Liga Premier Serie A

Deportiva Venados

8 - 1

Dragones Toluca

Our Tip

Match Events

13'

Nungaray A.

28'

Garcia C.

35'

Micolta S.

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

The Liga Premier Serie A game between Deportiva Venados and Dragones Toluca finished 8-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Deportiva Venados.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

90%

Deportiva Venados

Draws

Dragones Toluca

Draw rate projection: 6% Favored: Deportiva Venados

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

95% / Very High Confidence

Deportiva Venados carry the better recent record into this one.
90% — that's where the model lands on Deportiva Venados taking it.
Regular Liga Premier Serie A form gives a decent read on both sides.
High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%

Over 1.5 Goals 82%

Over 2.5 Goals 78%

Over 3.5 Goals 44%

Over 4.5 Goals 20%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 32.8%

Deportiva Venados Clean Sheet 68%

Dragones Toluca Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Deportiva Venados	Dragones Toluca
Matches Played	34	30
Wins	21	4
Draws	8	3
Losses	5	23
Goals Scored	2.25	0.83
Goals Conceded	0.75	2.17
Expected Goals (xG)	2.25	0.83
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	0.75	2.17

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 28, 2026 Liga Premier Serie A

Dragones Toluca vs Deportiva Venados

Possession: 50% - 47% Cards: 4 - 2

0:1

Nov 15, 2025 Liga Premier Serie A

Deportiva Venados vs Dragones Toluca

Possession: 41% - 44% Cards: 3 - 2

8:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Deportiva Venados Compare

Top Goalscorer Micolta S.

4 Goals

Assists Leader Castaneda F.

2 Ast

Avg xG / game 1.73

Avg xA / game 1.13

Dragones Toluca Compare

Top Goalscorer Nungaray A.

1 Goals

Avg xG / game 0.75

Avg xA / game 0.46

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Deportiva Venados 95 / 100

Dragones Toluca 10 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Deportiva Venados Dragones Toluca

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick DEP Win (1)

Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS No

Correct Score 3:0

BTTS Outcome No (NG)

Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Deportiva Venados found the back of the net in 82% of recent matches (34 games).

Dragones Toluca let in goals in 83% of their last 30 matches.

H2H data points to 5.00 goals as a typical output.

Deportiva Venados went unbeaten in 5 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Deportiva Venados VS Dragones Toluca

2.25 Goals Scored 0.83

0.75 Goals Conceded 2.17

50% Over 1.5 67%

50% Over 2.5 67%

38% Over 3.5 50%

League Standings

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Alacranes de Durango	26	21	2	3	71:16	74
2	Tigres de Alica	26	17	3	6	46:25	56
3	Cimarrones de Sonora	26	15	7	4	46:19	54
4	Leones Negros 2	26	16	2	8	42:26	53
5	Tecos	26	14	4	8	49:34	49
6	Tritones Vallarta	26	15	1	10	32:27	46
7	Mineros de Fresnillo	26	11	4	11	40:41	39
8	Los Cabos United	26	11	3	12	37:40	37
9	Guerreros de Autlan	26	8	5	13	38:42	32
10	UA Zacatecas	26	8	4	14	32:49	29
11	Ensenada FC	26	8	2	16	30:55	28
12	Reboceros de La Piedad	26	7	1	18	39:66	23
13	Zapotlanejo	26	6	1	19	39:73	21
14	Colima FC	26	4	3	19	24:52	17

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Apodaca	26	21	2	3	47:19	66
2	FC Santiago	26	14	7	5	43:21	51
3	Zacatepec	26	12	8	6	29:15	45
4	Halcones de Zapopan	26	11	6	9	44:27	44
5	Calor De San Pedro	26	12	7	7	37:26	44
6	Gavilanes de Matamoros	26	12	5	9	31:22	44
7	Lobos ULMX	26	11	6	9	33:28	40
8	Correcaminos 2	26	9	7	10	27:25	36
9	Chilpancingo	26	9	8	9	33:41	35
10	Cordobes FC	26	8	6	12	29:30	30
11	Zitacuaro	26	6	10	10	22:31	28
12	CS Canamy	26	5	8	13	33:53	26
13	Ciervos	26	4	4	18	20:50	18
14	Atletico Hidalgo	26	4	4	18	22:62	16

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Racing de Veracruz	24	21	3	0	55:9	71
2	Deportiva Venados	24	15	4	5	61:25	52
3	Tapachula	24	13	0	11	51:35	44
4	Celaya	24	12	4	8	42:32	43
5	Inter Playa Del Carmen	24	13	4	7	35:28	42
6	Montaneses	24	12	2	10	35:28	38
7	Pioneros	24	10	3	11	35:35	35
8	Jaguares De Chiapas	24	9	4	11	33:32	34
9	Heroes de Zaci	24	10	2	12	33:46	34
10	Chapulineros	24	5	8	11	21:33	23
11	Canoneros FC	24	7	1	16	25:49	22
12	Neza FC	24	5	2	17	25:73	19
13	Dragones Toluca	24	4	3	17	21:47	17