Sport Picks

Guatemala

Liga Nacional 2025/2026 Estadio Winston Pineda

Deportivo Achuapa

1 - 0

Malacateco

Our Tip

Match Events

25'

Jimenez M.

46'

Sub

Martir A. In: Mejia C.

Out: Martir A.

52'

Santos C.

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

The Liga Nacional 2025/2026 game between Deportivo Achuapa and Malacateco finished 1-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Deportivo Achuapa.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

13%

Deportivo Achuapa

17%

Draws

70%

Malacateco

Draw rate projection: 17% Favored: Malacateco

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

88% / Very High Confidence

Malacateco carry the better recent record into this one.
Malacateco are the model's pick here, at 70%.
This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%

Over 1.5 Goals 50.5%

Over 2.5 Goals 25%

Over 3.5 Goals 12.5%

Over 4.5 Goals 6%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 27.200000000000003%

Deportivo Achuapa Clean Sheet 19%

Malacateco Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Deportivo Achuapa	Malacateco
Matches Played	31	30
Wins	7	12
Draws	8	4
Losses	16	14
Goals Scored	0.5	0.63
Goals Conceded	1.88	0.88
Expected Goals (xG)	0.50	0.63
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	1.88	0.88

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 12, 2026 Liga Nacional

Deportivo Achuapa vs Malacateco

Possession: 56% - 59% Cards: 0 - 2

1:0

Feb 21, 2026 Liga Nacional

Malacateco vs Deportivo Achuapa

Possession: 53% - 49% Cards: 1 - 1

1:1

Nov 5, 2025 Liga Nacional

Deportivo Achuapa vs Malacateco

Possession: 60% - 49% Cards: 3 - 1

0:1

Aug 31, 2025 Liga Nacional

Malacateco vs Deportivo Achuapa

Possession: 50% - 58% Cards: 1 - 3

2:0

Mar 29, 2025 Liga Nacional

Malacateco vs Deportivo Achuapa

Possession: 45% - 47% Cards: 3 - 1

2:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Deportivo Achuapa Compare

Top Goalscorer Santos C.

1 Goals

Avg xG / game 0.38

Avg xA / game 0.25

Malacateco Compare

Avg xG / game 0.57

Avg xA / game 0.35

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Deportivo Achuapa 16 / 100

Malacateco 77 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Deportivo Achuapa Malacateco

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick MAL Win (2)

Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No

Correct Score 0:1

BTTS Outcome No (NG)

Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Defensive concern: Malacateco conceded in 67% of 30 recent games.

These sides typically produce 1.60 goals when they meet.

Difficult form: Malacateco registered 3 defeats in their last 5 games.

Deportivo Achuapa scored in 58% of their last 31 games.

Scoring Trends

Deportivo Achuapa VS Malacateco

0.5 Goals Scored 0.63

1.88 Goals Conceded 0.88

63% Over 1.5 38%

50% Over 2.5 13%

25% Over 3.5 0%

League Standings

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Xelaju	22	11	6	5	34:19	39
2	Municipal	22	11	5	6	32:21	38
3	Deportivo Mixco	22	10	6	6	30:26	36
4	Comunicaciones	22	11	2	9	28:26	35
5	Antigua	22	9	7	6	34:29	34
6	Coban Imperial	22	8	8	6	29:22	32
7	Guastatoya	22	8	7	7	29:21	31
8	Marquense	22	9	3	10	25:29	30
9	Mictlan	22	7	6	9	25:36	27
10	Malacateco	22	6	4	12	19:25	22
11	Aurora F.C.	22	4	8	10	14:30	20
12	Deportivo Achuapa	22	5	4	13	17:32	19