Sport Picks
Match Events
70'
70'
Liu R.
82'
82'
Midwood T.
Assist: Day C.
90'
90'
Day C.
AI Match Summary
The Premier League U18 2025/2026 game between Derby U18 and Stoke City U18 finished 0-3, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Stoke City U18.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
70%
20%
10%
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Derby U18
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
70%
/ High Confidence
- Derby U18 carry the better recent record into this one.
- Win probability leans Derby U18's way, sitting at 60%.
- This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 87%).
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 94%
Over 2.5 Goals 87%
Over 3.5 Goals 81.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 37%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 80.6%
Derby U18 Clean Sheet 10%
Stoke City U18 Clean Sheet 10%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Derby U18 | Stoke City U18 |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 30 | 30 |
| Wins | 12 | 6 |
| Draws | 3 | 3 |
| Losses | 15 | 21 |
| Goals Scored | 1.83 | 1.73 |
| Goals Conceded | 2.4 | 2.67 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 2.38 | 2.19 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Sep 12, 2026 Premier League U18
Stoke City U18 vs Derby U18
0:2
Mar 21, 2026 Premier League U18
Derby U18 vs Stoke City U18
0:3
Nov 1, 2025 Premier League U18
Stoke City U18 vs Derby U18
4:5
Feb 8, 2025 Premier League U18
Stoke City U18 vs Derby U18
3:3
Aug 31, 2024 Premier League U18
Derby U18 vs Stoke City U18
6:2
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Derby U18 Compare
Avg xG / game 1.83
Avg xA / game 1.19
Stoke City U18 Compare
Top Goalscorer Liu R.
1 Goals Assists Leader Midwood T.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.99
Avg xA / game 1.22
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Derby U18 56 / 100
Stoke City U18 18 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Derby U18 Stoke City U18
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Derby U18 Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Attacking prowess: Derby U18 scored in 83% of their last 30 outings.
Defensive concern: Stoke City U18 conceded in 90% of 30 recent games.
H2H data points to 5.60 goals as a typical output.
Derby U18 has registered 3 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.
Scoring Trends
Derby U18 VS Stoke City U18
2 Goals Scored 1.75
2.63 Goals Conceded 2.75
100% Over 1.5 88%
88% Over 2.5 88%
75% Over 3.5 88%
Recent Form & Match History
Derby U18
(Home) 19 Sept
Derby U18
3 : 3 Liverpool U18
12 Sept
Stoke City U18
0 : 2 Derby U18
05 Sept
Derby U18
0 : 2 Nottingham U18
29 Aug
Middlesbrough U18
1 : 3 Derby U18
22 Aug
Derby U18
1 : 4 Burnley U18
Page 1 of 6
19 Sept
Derby U18
3 : 3 Liverpool U18
05 Sept
Derby U18
0 : 2 Nottingham U18
22 Aug
Derby U18
1 : 4 Burnley U18
08 May
Derby U18
4 : 3 Liverpool U18
24 Apr
Derby U18
1 : 2 Burnley U18
Page 1 of 3
Stoke City U18
(Away) 19 Sept
Leicester U18
2 : 2 Stoke City U18
12 Sept
Stoke City U18
0 : 2 Derby U18
05 Sept
Stoke City U18
5 : 8 Manchester City U18
29 Aug
Nottingham U18
3 : 1 Stoke City U18
22 Aug
Newcastle Utd U18
3 : 2 Stoke City U18
Page 1 of 6
19 Sept
Leicester U18
2 : 2 Stoke City U18
29 Aug
Nottingham U18
3 : 1 Stoke City U18
22 Aug
Newcastle Utd U18
3 : 2 Stoke City U18
15 Aug
Burnley U18
0 : 1 Stoke City U18
09 May
Manchester United U18
3 : 1 Stoke City U18
Page 1 of 4
League Standings (Group 1)
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Manchester City U18 | 26 | 19 | 3 | 4 | 96:39 | 60 |
| 2 | Manchester United U18 | 26 | 18 | 2 | 6 | 65:24 | 56 |
| 3 | Newcastle Utd U18 | 26 | 16 | 1 | 9 | 55:44 | 49 |
| 4 | Everton U18 | 26 | 13 | 3 | 10 | 54:45 | 42 |
| 5 | Nottingham U18 | 26 | 13 | 3 | 10 | 50:47 | 42 |
| 6 | Sunderland U18 | 26 | 11 | 6 | 9 | 56:44 | 39 |
| 7 | Middlesbrough U18 | 26 | 12 | 3 | 11 | 45:45 | 39 |
| 8 | Liverpool U18 | 26 | 11 | 2 | 13 | 70:70 | 35 |
| 9 | Blackburn U18 | 26 | 9 | 6 | 11 | 51:68 | 33 |
| 10 | Derby U18 | 26 | 10 | 2 | 14 | 44:67 | 32 |
| 11 | Burnley U18 | 26 | 9 | 3 | 14 | 49:68 | 30 |
| 12 | Leeds U18 | 26 | 8 | 5 | 13 | 47:68 | 29 |
| 13 | Wolves U18 | 26 | 5 | 5 | 16 | 29:55 | 20 |
| 14 | Stoke City U18 | 26 | 5 | 2 | 19 | 42:69 | 17 |
Promotion - Premier League U18 2025/2026 (Play Offs)
League Standings (Group 2)
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chelsea U18 | 28 | 21 | 4 | 3 | 88:24 | 67 |
| 2 | Tottenham U18 | 28 | 16 | 6 | 6 | 70:36 | 54 |
| 3 | Aston Villa U18 | 28 | 17 | 3 | 8 | 82:55 | 54 |
| 4 | Brighton U18 | 28 | 14 | 7 | 7 | 63:41 | 49 |
| 5 | Crystal Palace U18 | 28 | 14 | 4 | 10 | 74:52 | 46 |
| 6 | West Brom U18 | 28 | 14 | 4 | 10 | 68:50 | 46 |
| 7 | Southampton U18 | 28 | 13 | 3 | 12 | 65:61 | 42 |
| 8 | West Ham U18 | 28 | 13 | 2 | 13 | 62:59 | 41 |
| 9 | Leicester U18 | 28 | 10 | 6 | 12 | 46:53 | 36 |
| 10 | Arsenal U18 | 28 | 9 | 6 | 13 | 46:57 | 33 |
| 11 | Fulham U18 | 28 | 9 | 6 | 13 | 48:65 | 33 |
| 12 | Norwich U18 | 28 | 6 | 8 | 14 | 47:67 | 26 |
| 13 | Reading U18 | 28 | 6 | 8 | 14 | 38:66 | 26 |
| 14 | Birmingham U18 | 28 | 6 | 3 | 19 | 29:88 | 21 |
| 15 | Ipswich U18 | 28 | 6 | 2 | 20 | 41:93 | 20 |
Promotion - Premier League U18 2025/2026 (Play Offs)
