Sport Picks
Derby U21 vs Aston Villa U21
England
Premier League 2 Moor Farm Training Centre, Derby 
Match Events
12'
12'
Sub
Osong J. In: Oguntolu J.
Out: Osong J.
59'
59'
Sub
Lynskey A. In: Brannigan C.
Out: Lynskey A.
59'
59'
Sub
Gordon I. In: Hawkins H.
Out: Gordon I.
AI Match Summary
The Premier League 2 game between Derby U21 and Aston Villa U21 finished 0-0.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
34%
15%
51%
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Aston Villa U21
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
51%
/ Medium Confidence
- Look at the last few games and Aston Villa U21 come out ahead of Derby U21 on wins alone.
- Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 39%.
- This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
- Aston Villa U21 have won 4 of the last 5 meetings between these two.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 38%
Over 4.5 Goals 17%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 74.6%
Derby U21 Clean Sheet 14%
Aston Villa U21 Clean Sheet 10%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Derby U21 | Aston Villa U21 |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 29 | 30 |
| Wins | 6 | 12 |
| Draws | 8 | 5 |
| Losses | 15 | 13 |
| Goals Scored | 1.5 | 1.5 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.75 | 1.63 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.75 | 1.63 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Jan 16, 2026 Premier League 2
Derby U21 vs Aston Villa U21
0:0
Aug 16, 2024 Premier League 2
Aston Villa U21 vs Derby U21
3:1
Sep 1, 2023 Premier League 2
Aston Villa U21 vs Derby U21
3:1
Apr 14, 2023 Premier League 2
Aston Villa U21 vs Derby U21
3:0
Oct 29, 2022 Premier League 2
Derby U21 vs Aston Villa U21
0:2
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Derby U21 31 / 100
Aston Villa U21 29 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Derby U21 Aston Villa U21
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick AST Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Aston Villa U21's defensive record shows goals conceded in 87% of 30 matches.
Derby U21 scored in 66% of their last 29 games.
These sides typically produce 2.60 goals when they meet.
Recent resilience: Derby U21 stayed unbeaten in 2 of the last 5 games.
Scoring Trends
Derby U21 VS Aston Villa U21
1.5 Goals Scored 1.5
1.75 Goals Conceded 1.63
75% Over 1.5 75%
50% Over 2.5 63%
38% Over 3.5 38%
Recent Form & Match History
Derby U21
(Home) 01 Aug
Derby U21
0 : 3 Carlisle
27 Apr
Brentford U21
2 : 0 Derby U21
13 Apr
Reading U21
4 : 1 Derby U21
06 Apr
Derby U21
2 : 1 Sunderland U21
03 Apr
Derby U21
1 : 0 Manchester City U21
Page 1 of 6
01 Aug
Derby U21
0 : 3 Carlisle
06 Apr
Derby U21
2 : 1 Sunderland U21
03 Apr
Derby U21
1 : 0 Manchester City U21
20 Mar
Derby U21
1 : 0 Middlesbrough U21
06 Mar
Derby U21
4 : 2 West Ham U21
Page 1 of 3
Aston Villa U21
(Away) 01 Aug
Shrewsbury
3 : 2 Aston Villa U21
21 Jul
Tamworth
1 : 2 Aston Villa U21
01 May
Aston Villa U21
2 : 3 Manchester City U21
24 Apr
Southampton U21
3 : 4 Aston Villa U21
17 Apr
Stoke City U21
0 : 1 Aston Villa U21
Page 1 of 6
01 Aug
Shrewsbury
3 : 2 Aston Villa U21
21 Jul
Tamworth
1 : 2 Aston Villa U21
24 Apr
Southampton U21
3 : 4 Aston Villa U21
17 Apr
Stoke City U21
0 : 1 Aston Villa U21
06 Apr
Blackburn U21
1 : 2 Aston Villa U21
Page 1 of 4
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chelsea U21 | 20 | 14 | 1 | 5 | 52:25 | 43 |
| 2 | Manchester United U21 | 20 | 13 | 4 | 3 | 43:26 | 43 |
| 3 | Manchester City U21 | 20 | 13 | 1 | 6 | 59:21 | 40 |
| 4 | Fulham U21 | 20 | 11 | 5 | 4 | 48:32 | 38 |
| 5 | Ipswich U21 | 20 | 12 | 2 | 6 | 45:45 | 38 |
| 6 | Southampton U21 | 20 | 10 | 6 | 4 | 36:29 | 36 |
| 7 | Liverpool U21 | 20 | 11 | 2 | 7 | 49:36 | 35 |
| 8 | Tottenham U21 | 20 | 11 | 2 | 7 | 42:32 | 35 |
| 9 | Leicester U21 | 20 | 9 | 4 | 7 | 48:42 | 31 |
| 10 | Crystal Palace U21 | 20 | 9 | 4 | 7 | 36:31 | 31 |
| 11 | Aston Villa U21 | 20 | 9 | 4 | 7 | 32:35 | 31 |
| 12 | Brighton U21 | 20 | 8 | 6 | 6 | 38:25 | 30 |
| 13 | West Ham U21 | 20 | 8 | 6 | 6 | 44:35 | 30 |
| 14 | Arsenal U21 | 20 | 8 | 5 | 7 | 28:33 | 29 |
| 15 | Sunderland U21 | 20 | 8 | 4 | 8 | 41:40 | 28 |
| 16 | Middlesbrough U21 | 20 | 7 | 6 | 7 | 37:28 | 27 |
| 17 | Nottingham U21 | 20 | 8 | 2 | 10 | 23:23 | 26 |
| 18 | Everton U21 | 20 | 7 | 4 | 9 | 33:36 | 25 |
| 19 | Reading U21 | 20 | 7 | 4 | 9 | 29:36 | 25 |
| 20 | Stoke City U21 | 20 | 7 | 4 | 9 | 29:42 | 25 |
| 21 | Newcastle Utd U21 | 20 | 6 | 6 | 8 | 30:35 | 24 |
| 22 | Wolves U21 | 20 | 6 | 5 | 9 | 30:45 | 23 |
| 23 | Norwich U21 | 20 | 5 | 5 | 10 | 32:42 | 20 |
| 24 | Derby U21 | 20 | 5 | 5 | 10 | 26:44 | 20 |
| 25 | Leeds U21 | 20 | 5 | 3 | 12 | 28:40 | 18 |
| 26 | West Brom U21 | 20 | 5 | 3 | 12 | 26:41 | 18 |
| 27 | Birmingham U21 | 20 | 4 | 5 | 11 | 26:52 | 17 |
| 28 | Blackburn U21 | 20 | 4 | 2 | 14 | 27:46 | 14 |
| 29 | Burnley U21 | 20 | 3 | 4 | 13 | 22:42 | 13 |
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