Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Derby U23 vs Charlton U23

England England

Premier League Cup 2021/2022
Our Tip

Match Events

45' Event
Plange L.
68' Event
Watson L.
71'
Bardell M.

AI Match Summary

Derby U23 in this Premier League Cup 2021/2022 tie, finishing 2-1. One-off knockout football delivers a decisive result.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

0%
Derby U23
15%
Draws
85%
Charlton U23
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Charlton U23

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

85% / Very High Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Charlton U23 lately — more wins on the board than Derby U23.
  • Model gives Charlton U23 a 85% chance of winning this.
  • Charlton U23 arrive in better shape, but cup ties don't always follow form.
  • Historical meetings favor Derby U23, who have won 1 of the last 2 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 85%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 98%
Over 1.5 Goals 87.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 85%
Over 3.5 Goals 69%
Over 4.5 Goals 31%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 80.2%
Derby U23 Clean Sheet 10%
Charlton U23 Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Derby U23 Charlton U23
Matches Played 31 30
Wins 10 13
Draws 3 7
Losses 18 10
Goals Scored 1.61 2.33
Goals Conceded 2.13 1.93
Expected Goals (xG) 1.38 3.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jan 14, 2022 Premier League Cup
Charlton U23 vs Derby U23
1:2
Oct 11, 2021 Premier League Cup
Derby U23 vs Charlton U23
2:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Derby U23 Compare

Top Goalscorer Plange L.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Watson L.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.06
Avg xA / game 0.69

Charlton U23 Compare

Top Goalscorer Dempsey B.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 2.85
Avg xA / game 1.74

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Derby U23 10 / 100
Charlton U23 83 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Derby U23 Charlton U23

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Charlton U23 Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Charlton U23 has conceded goals in 83% of their last 30 outings.

Attacking prowess: Derby U23 scored in 68% of their last 31 outings.

H2H data points to 3.00 goals as a typical output.

Difficult form: Charlton U23 registered 1 defeats in their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Derby U23 VS Charlton U23
0.88 Goals Scored 3.5
2.75 Goals Conceded 1.88
75% Over 1.5 100%
75% Over 2.5 100%
50% Over 3.5 88%

Recent Form & Match History

Derby U23

(Home)
09 May
Crystal Palace U23
3 : 1
Derby U23
02 May
West Ham U23
5 : 0
Derby U23
25 Apr
Derby U23
0 : 1
Tottenham U23
15 Apr
Leicester U23
2 : 1
Derby U23
10 Apr
Derby U23
3 : 4
West Brom U23
Page 1 of 7

Charlton U23

(Away)
22 Jul
Charlton U23
3 : 0
Welling
16 Jul
Wealdstone
0 : 1
Charlton U23
12 Jul
Hampton & Richmond
3 : 2
Charlton U23
05 Jul
Neots
2 : 2
Charlton U23
02 Jul
Deal Town
2 : 6
Charlton U23
Page 1 of 6

League Standings (Group 1)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 West Brom U23 6 4 1 1 18:8 13
2 Arsenal U23 6 2 2 2 11:12 8
3 Bournemouth U23 6 2 2 2 8:9 8
4 Southampton U23 6 0 3 3 7:15 3
Promotion - Premier League Cup 2021/2022 (Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 2)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Middlesbrough U23 6 3 0 3 13:10 9
2 QPR U23 6 3 0 3 15:14 9
3 Blackburn U23 6 3 0 3 16:16 9
4 Nottingham U23 6 3 0 3 13:17 9
Promotion - Premier League Cup 2021/2022 (Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 3)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Derby U23 6 5 1 0 17:9 16
2 Charlton U23 6 3 1 2 14:6 10
3 Norwich U23 6 1 2 3 12:16 5
4 Reading U23 6 1 0 5 6:18 3
Promotion - Premier League Cup 2021/2022 (Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 4)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Peterborough U23 6 3 1 2 13:8 10
2 Sheffield Utd U23 6 3 1 2 9:10 10
3 Everton U23 6 3 0 3 8:9 9
4 Burnley U23 6 2 0 4 8:11 6
Promotion - Premier League Cup 2021/2022 (Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 5)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Wigan U23 6 4 1 1 13:7 13
2 Leeds U23 6 2 2 2 10:10 8
3 Sunderland U23 6 1 3 2 9:13 6
4 Mansfield U23 6 1 2 3 7:9 5
Promotion - Premier League Cup 2021/2022 (Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 6)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 West Ham U23 6 4 1 1 11:5 13
2 Wolves U23 6 3 2 1 8:6 11
3 Exeter U23 6 1 2 3 9:12 5
4 Swansea U23 6 0 3 3 7:12 3
Promotion - Premier League Cup 2021/2022 (Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 7)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Huddersfield U23 6 5 1 0 17:3 16
2 Newcastle Utd U23 6 3 1 2 9:6 10
3 Watford U23 6 2 0 4 7:15 6
4 Birmingham U23 6 1 0 5 6:15 3
Promotion - Premier League Cup 2021/2022 (Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 8)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Fulham U23 6 5 1 0 14:4 16
2 Stoke City U23 6 3 0 3 15:11 9
3 Colchester U23 6 1 2 3 8:10 5
4 Southend U23 6 1 1 4 4:16 4
Promotion - Premier League Cup 2021/2022 (Play Offs)