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Deren vs FC Ulaanbaatar

Mongolia Mongolia

Premier League 2025/2026
Deren Logo

Deren

0 - 2
FT
FC Ulaanbaatar Logo

FC Ulaanbaatar

Our Tip

Match Events

28' Event
Jargaltuyaa T.
76' Event
Mijiddorj O.
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

FC Ulaanbaatar in this Premier League 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 0-2 — backing the pre-match view that favored FC Ulaanbaatar.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

32%
Deren
30%
Draws
38%
FC Ulaanbaatar
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: FC Ulaanbaatar

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

38% / Low Confidence
  • FC Ulaanbaatar have won more games recently than Deren.
  • Win probability leans FC Ulaanbaatar's way, sitting at 90%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 88%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 50.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 23%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 72.6%
Deren Clean Sheet 10%
FC Ulaanbaatar Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Deren FC Ulaanbaatar
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 19 22
Draws 5 4
Losses 6 4
Goals Scored 3.33 3.77
Goals Conceded 1.07 0.87
Expected Goals (xG) 2.00 1.94
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 17, 2026 Premier League
Deren vs FC Ulaanbaatar
0:0
Jul 6, 2026 Premier League
FC Ulaanbaatar vs Deren
2:3
Jun 27, 2026 Premier League
Deren vs FC Ulaanbaatar
0:2
May 23, 2026 Premier League
FC Ulaanbaatar vs Deren
2:0
Oct 26, 2025 Premier League
Deren vs FC Ulaanbaatar
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Deren Compare

Avg xG / game 1.54
Avg xA / game 1

FC Ulaanbaatar Compare

Top Goalscorer Jargaltuyaa T.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Mijiddorj O.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.76
Avg xA / game 1.08

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Deren 10 / 100
FC Ulaanbaatar 83 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Deren FC Ulaanbaatar

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick FC Ulaanbaatar Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Deren found the back of the net in 83% of recent matches (30 games).

Recent resilience: Deren stayed unbeaten in 5 of the last 5 games.

H2H data points to 2.20 goals as a typical output.

FC Ulaanbaatar's defensive record shows goals conceded in 57% of 30 matches.

Scoring Trends

Deren VS FC Ulaanbaatar
2.5 Goals Scored 2.88
1 Goals Conceded 1.5
88% Over 1.5 88%
75% Over 2.5 75%
38% Over 3.5 63%

Recent Form & Match History

Deren

(Home)
04 Oct
Deren
3 : 3
Khovd
01 Oct
Khovd Western
1 : 5
Deren
27 Sept
Deren
5 : 2
Amtat FC
20 Sept
Ulaangom City FC
0 : 5
Deren
17 Sept
Deren
0 : 0
FC Ulaanbaatar
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FC Ulaanbaatar

(Away)
05 Oct
FC Ulaanbaatar
8 : 0
Ulaangom City FC
30 Sept
Khovd
0 : 4
FC Ulaanbaatar
27 Sept
FC Ulaanbaatar
5 : 3
Hunters
20 Sept
Amtat FC
0 : 9
FC Ulaanbaatar
17 Sept
Deren
0 : 0
FC Ulaanbaatar
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 FC Ulaanbaatar 23 17 3 3 82:20 54
2 Central Stallions 23 14 5 4 60:26 47
3 Deren 23 14 3 6 70:25 45
4 Khangarid 22 10 4 8 68:34 34
Promotion - AFC Challenge League (Qualification)