Sport Picks

Turkey

TFF 3. Lig Group 2 2016/2017

Erbaaspor

Our Tip

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Heatmaps Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Derincespor play Erbaaspor in the TFF 3. Lig Group 2 2016/2017. It looks like a close match. Recently, Derincespor averaged 0.97 goals scored and 1.83 conceded. Erbaaspor averaged 1.09 goals scored and 1.59 conceded. In past meetings, Derincespor won 0, Erbaaspor won 1, and they drew 1. Their last match on Apr 29, 2017 ended 4:1. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.23 for Derincespor and 0.80 for Erbaaspor. This points to a Erbaaspor double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

27%

Derincespor

25%

Draws

48%

Erbaaspor

Draw rate projection: 25% Favored: Erbaaspor

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

79% / High Confidence

Derincespor picked up more points recently compared to Erbaaspor.
Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.23 vs 0.80 xG).
Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the visitors.
Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%

Over 1.5 Goals 70%

Over 2.5 Goals 48%

Over 3.5 Goals 29%

Over 4.5 Goals 14%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 48%

Derincespor Clean Sheet 26%

Erbaaspor Clean Sheet 12%

First Half Goal 63%

Second Half Goal 67%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Derincespor	Erbaaspor
Matches Played	30	34
Wins	4	10
Draws	9	7
Losses	17	17
Goals Scored	0.97	1.09
Goals Conceded	1.83	1.59

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 29, 2017 3. Lig Group 2

Erbaaspor vs Derincespor

Possession: 42% - 51% Cards: 1 - 4

4:1

Dec 18, 2016 3. Lig Group 2

Derincespor vs Erbaaspor

Possession: 57% - 45% Cards: 3 - 1

0:0

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Derincespor 30 / 100

Erbaaspor 46 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Derincespor Erbaaspor

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Erbaaspor or Draw (X2)

Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals

First Half Result Draw (HT)

BTTS Outcome No (NG)

Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win

Value Edge +42%

5.26

Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals

Value Edge +14.2%

2.38

*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Derincespor attacking → ← attacking Erbaaspor

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Derincespor scored in 60% of their last 30 games.

Erbaaspor let in goals in 74% of their last 34 matches.

Games between these two average 2.50 goals.

Derincespor went unbeaten in 1 of their last 5 games.

Erbaaspor lost 4 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

21 Points in last 5 37

0.00 Goals expected (xG) 0.50

0.00 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.25

League Standings

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Bodrumspor	34	19	8	7	59:31	65
2	Erbaaspor	34	16	12	6	48:29	60
3	Silivrispor	34	16	10	8	34:25	58
4	Manisa FK	34	15	13	6	59:37	58
5	Catalca Spor	34	15	10	9	42:33	55
6	Duzcespor	34	14	12	8	55:46	54
7	Beyoglu Yeni Carsi	34	15	8	11	46:39	53
8	Kirikhanspor	34	12	11	11	36:39	47
9	Kemerspor 2003	34	11	12	11	52:45	45
10	Yomraspor	34	10	14	10	28:29	44
11	Bucaspor 1928	34	11	10	13	41:46	43
12	Batman Petrolspor	34	11	10	13	38:38	43
13	Yesil Bursa	34	11	8	15	40:35	41
14	Dardanelspor	34	11	8	15	42:54	41
15	Pazarspor	34	11	6	17	34:46	39
16	Dersim Spor	34	9	6	19	33:54	33
17	Derincespor	34	5	11	18	31:59	26
18	Kirikkale FK	34	4	11	19	28:61	23