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Derio vs Ath Bilbao - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

World World

Club Friendly
Our Tip

Match Events

46'
Sub
Padilla A. In: Santos M.
Out: Padilla A.
46'
Sub
Rincon H. In: Areso J.
Out: Rincon H.
46'
Sub
Alvarez Y. In: Monreal I.
Out: Alvarez Y.

AI Match Summary

The Club Friendly game between Derio and Ath Bilbao finished 0-3, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Ath Bilbao.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

33%
Derio
30%
Draws
37%
Ath Bilbao
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Ath Bilbao

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

37% / Low Confidence
  • Derio carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 44%.
  • Regular Club Friendly form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 29.2%
Derio Clean Sheet 21%
Ath Bilbao Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Derio Ath Bilbao
Matches Played 30 29
Wins 14 11
Draws 7 4
Losses 9 14
Goals Scored 1.43 1.62
Goals Conceded 1.13 1.31
Expected Goals (xG) 1.31 1.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jul 15, 2026 Club Friendly
Derio vs Ath Bilbao
0:3

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Derio Compare

Avg xG / game 1.01
Avg xA / game 0.66

Ath Bilbao Compare

Top Goalscorer Navarro R.
2 Goals
Assists Leader Sancet O.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.03
Avg xA / game 0.63

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Derio 37 / 100
Ath Bilbao 32 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Derio Ath Bilbao

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Ath Bilbao Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:4
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Derio scored in 70% of their last 30 outings.

Ath Bilbao's defensive record shows goals conceded in 66% of 29 matches.

Historical meetings average 3.00 goals per match.

Recent resilience: Derio stayed unbeaten in 4 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Derio VS Ath Bilbao
1.38 Goals Scored 1
1.25 Goals Conceded 1.25
75% Over 1.5 75%
38% Over 2.5 38%
13% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Derio

(Home)
04 Oct
Derio
2 : 0
Beasain
26 Sept
UD Aretxabaleta
1 : 2
Derio
20 Sept
Derio
2 : 0
Santurtzi
16 Sept
Derio
3 : 5
Salamanca CF UDS
12 Sept
San Ignacio
1 : 1
Derio
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Ath Bilbao

(Away)
02 Oct
Real Sociedad
0 : 1
Ath Bilbao
19 Sept
Ath Bilbao
0 : 0
Alaves
12 Sept
Ath Bilbao
1 : 1
Elche
05 Sept
Ath Bilbao
3 : 0
Atl. Madrid
30 Aug
Celta Vigo
0 : 2
Ath Bilbao
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