Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Derio vs CD Vitoria

Spain Spain

Tercera RFEF - Group 4 2023/2024
Our Tip

Match Events

45' Event
Collado U.

AI Match Summary

CD Vitoria in this Tercera RFEF - Group 4 2023/2024 matchup, with the score ending 0-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored CD Vitoria.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

23%
Derio
20%
Draws
57%
CD Vitoria
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: CD Vitoria

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

57% / Medium Confidence
  • Form's been kind to CD Vitoria lately — more wins on the board than Derio.
  • Model gives CD Vitoria a 57% chance of winning this.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 50%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 28.400000000000002%
Derio Clean Sheet 22%
CD Vitoria Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Derio CD Vitoria
Matches Played 37 30
Wins 16 23
Draws 7 6
Losses 14 1
Goals Scored 1.38 1.87
Goals Conceded 1.22 0.47
Expected Goals (xG) 1.73 1.06
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 5, 2024 Tercera RFEF - Group 4
CD Vitoria vs Derio
2:0
Nov 18, 2023 Tercera RFEF - Group 4
Derio vs CD Vitoria
0:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Derio Compare

Avg xG / game 1.33
Avg xA / game 0.86

CD Vitoria Compare

Top Goalscorer Collado U.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.96
Avg xA / game 0.59

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Derio 24 / 100
CD Vitoria 59 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Derio CD Vitoria

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick CD Vitoria Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Derio's goal record stands at 70% scoring rate across 37 recent games.

These sides typically produce 1.50 goals when they meet.

CD Vitoria let in goals in 33% of their last 30 matches.

Solid form: Derio remains unbeaten in 2 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Derio VS -
2.25 Goals Scored 0
1.13 Goals Conceded 0
100% Over 1.5 0%
88% Over 2.5 0%
50% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Derio

(Home)
22 Aug
Gimnastic de Torrelavega
1 : 1
Derio
15 Jul
Derio
0 : 3
Ath Bilbao
06 Jun
Leioa
1 : 0
Derio
31 May
Derio
0 : 1
Leioa
24 May
Derio
2 : 0
Lagun Onak
Page 1 of 8

CD Vitoria

(Away)
11 May
CD Vitoria
2 : 2
Pasaia
04 May
Padura
0 : 1
CD Vitoria
01 May
CD Vitoria
2 : 0
Touring KE
27 Apr
San Ignacio
2 : 0
CD Vitoria
20 Apr
CD Vitoria
2 : 0
Beasain
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 CD Vitoria 34 25 7 2 65:17 82
2 Basconia 34 18 10 6 54:32 64
3 Beasain 34 19 6 9 55:36 63
4 SD Deusto 34 17 10 7 45:29 61
5 Portugalete 34 17 9 8 54:32 60
6 Lagun Onak 34 16 9 9 43:33 57
7 SCD Durango 34 14 8 12 47:47 50
8 San Ignacio 34 12 11 11 49:44 47
9 Leioa 34 13 6 15 46:51 45
10 Urduliz FT 34 11 9 14 38:47 42
11 Derio 34 11 9 14 35:35 42
12 Alaves C 34 10 10 14 34:42 40
13 Touring KE 34 9 12 13 39:49 39
14 Padura 34 9 11 14 33:47 38
15 Pasaia 34 9 7 18 23:42 34
16 Anaitasuna FT 34 8 8 18 35:51 32
17 Aurrera Ondarroa 34 5 9 20 26:54 24
18 Anorga 34 3 9 22 31:64 18
Promotion - Tercera RFEF - Group 4 2023/2024 (Play Offs)