Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Derry City vs Waterford

Ireland Ireland

Premier Division The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium, Derry
Our Tip

Match Events

13'
Cotter B.
14' Event
Lonergan T.
(Penalty)
56'
Sub
McClean J. In: Slevin R.
Out: McClean J.

AI Match Summary

Waterford in this Premier Division matchup, with the score ending 2-4 — backing the pre-match view that favored Waterford.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

36%
Derry City
44%
Draws
20%
Waterford
Draw rate projection: 44% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

71% / Medium Confidence
  • Waterford average 2.25 goals a game right now, well clear of Derry City's 1.38.
  • Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 44%.
  • Regular Premier Division form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 98%
Over 1.5 Goals 87.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 37.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 17%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 77.8%
Derry City Clean Sheet 12%
Waterford Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Derry City Waterford
Matches Played 29 30
Wins 8 8
Draws 11 10
Losses 10 12
Goals Scored 1.38 2.25
Goals Conceded 1.25 1.63
Expected Goals (xG) 1.38 2.25
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.25 1.63

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jul 3, 2026 Premier Division
Derry City vs Waterford
2:4
May 15, 2026 Premier Division
Waterford vs Derry City
2:2
Feb 27, 2026 Premier Division
Derry City vs Waterford
4:2
Oct 17, 2025 Premier Division
Waterford vs Derry City
1:2
Jul 4, 2025 Premier Division
Derry City vs Waterford
7:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Derry City Compare

Top Goalscorer Slevin R.
1 Goals
Assists Leader O'Reilly A.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.06
Avg xA / game 0.69

Waterford Compare

Top Goalscorer Lonergan T.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Amond P.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 2.05
Avg xA / game 1.25

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Derry City 35 / 100
Waterford 20 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Derry City Waterford

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick WAT Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Waterford has conceded goals in 90% of their last 30 outings.

Games between these two average 5.60 goals.

Derry City found the back of the net in 76% of recent matches (29 games).

Solid form: Derry City remains unbeaten in 2 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Derry City VS Waterford
1.38 Goals Scored 2.25
1.25 Goals Conceded 1.63
75% Over 1.5 100%
50% Over 2.5 75%
25% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Derry City

(Home)
19 Jul
Derry City
3 : 0
Tolka
16 Jul
Derry City
1 : 2
CSKA Sofia
09 Jul
CSKA Sofia
3 : 2
Derry City
03 Jul
Derry City
2 : 4
Waterford
26 Jun
Derry City
2 : 0
Drogheda
Page 1 of 6

Waterford

(Away)
17 Jul
Waterford
2 : 1
Cobh Ramblers
10 Jul
Waterford
1 : 1
St. Patricks
03 Jul
Derry City
2 : 4
Waterford
26 Jun
Dundalk
2 : 3
Waterford
19 Jun
Waterford
0 : 2
Shamrock Rovers
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Shamrock Rovers25155540:2250
2Bohemians25127640:2743
3St. Patricks24126639:2042
4Dundalk2498738:3635
5Shelbourne24810635:3534
6Derry City25611832:3129
7Galway United23761032:3927
8Drogheda24671129:4125
9Waterford24491133:4721
10Sligo Rovers24551420:4020
Promotion - Champions League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Relegation - Premier Division (Relegation)
Relegation - Division 1 2027 (Main)