Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Derry City vs Waterford

Ireland Ireland

Premier Division The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium, Derry
Derry City Logo

Derry City

2 - 4
FT
Waterford Logo

Waterford

Our Tip

Match Events

13'
Cotter B.
14' Event
Lonergan T.
(Penalty)
56'
Sub
McClean J. In: Slevin R.
Out: McClean J.
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Waterford in this Premier Division matchup, with the score ending 2-4 — backing the pre-match view that favored Waterford.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

38%
Derry City
35%
Draws
27%
Waterford
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Derry City

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

35% / Low Confidence
  • Waterford average 1.6 goals a game right now, well clear of Derry City's 1.52.
  • Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 40%.
  • Regular Premier Division form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 77%
Derry City Clean Sheet 14%
Waterford Clean Sheet 13%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Derry City Waterford
Matches Played 31 30
Wins 10 10
Draws 12 11
Losses 9 9
Goals Scored 1.52 1.6
Goals Conceded 1.32 1.6
Expected Goals (xG) 1.13 1.63
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 14, 2026 Premier Division
Waterford vs Derry City
2:2
Jul 3, 2026 Premier Division
Derry City vs Waterford
2:4
May 15, 2026 Premier Division
Waterford vs Derry City
2:2
Feb 27, 2026 Premier Division
Derry City vs Waterford
4:2
Oct 17, 2025 Premier Division
Waterford vs Derry City
1:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Derry City Compare

Top Goalscorer Slevin R.
1 Goals
Assists Leader O'Reilly A.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.87
Avg xA / game 0.56

Waterford Compare

Top Goalscorer Lonergan T.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Amond P.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.48
Avg xA / game 0.91

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Derry City 31 / 100
Waterford 29 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Derry City Waterford

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Derry City scored in 81% of their last 31 outings.

Waterford let in goals in 80% of their last 30 matches.

Historical meetings average 4.60 goals per match.

Solid form: Derry City remains unbeaten in 5 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Derry City VS Waterford
1.88 Goals Scored 1.5
1.75 Goals Conceded 0.38
75% Over 1.5 63%
50% Over 2.5 38%
38% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Derry City

(Home)
18 Sept
Derry City
1 : 0
Galway United
14 Sept
Waterford
2 : 2
Derry City
11 Sept
Shelbourne
0 : 1
Derry City
06 Sept
Derry City
4 : 2
Dundalk
30 Aug
Derry City
3 : 3
Shamrock Rovers
Page 1 of 7

Waterford

(Away)
18 Sept
Shamrock Rovers
3 : 2
Waterford
14 Sept
Waterford
2 : 2
Derry City
11 Sept
Waterford
1 : 1
Dundalk
04 Sept
Waterford
3 : 0
Sligo Rovers
28 Aug
St. Patricks
0 : 2
Waterford
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 St. Patricks 32 17 8 7 52:25 59
2 Shamrock Rovers 31 17 8 6 49:31 59
3 Bohemians 31 16 8 7 55:37 56
4 Derry City 32 9 14 9 45:42 41
5 Dundalk 32 10 11 11 49:53 41
6 Shelbourne 32 9 13 10 42:45 40
7 Galway United 32 9 11 12 42:48 38
8 Waterford 32 7 13 12 44:54 34
9 Drogheda 32 8 10 14 38:51 34
10 Sligo Rovers 32 5 8 19 24:54 23
Promotion - Champions League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Relegation - Premier Division (Relegation)
Relegation - Division 1 2027 (Main)