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Derthona FbC vs Valenzana - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Italy Italy

Serie D - Group A 2025/2026
Our Tip

Match Events

1' Event
Daffonchio A.
34' Event
Palazzolo N.

AI Match Summary

Neither side could be separated in this Serie D - Group A 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 1-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

37%
Derthona FbC
30%
Draws
33%
Valenzana
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Derthona FbC

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

30% / Low Confidence
  • Derthona FbC haven't matched Valenzana's recent run of results.
  • 42% — that's where the model lands on Derthona FbC taking it.
  • Regular Serie D - Group A 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 38%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 69%
Derthona FbC Clean Sheet 20%
Valenzana Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Derthona FbC Valenzana
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 9 10
Draws 7 6
Losses 13 13
Goals Scored 0.9 1.03
Goals Conceded 1.24 1.52
Expected Goals (xG) 1.56 0.94
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 1, 2026 Serie D - Group A
Derthona FbC vs Valenzana
1:1
Sep 28, 2025 Serie D - Group A
Valenzana vs Derthona FbC
1:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Derthona FbC Compare

Top Goalscorer Daffonchio A.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.2
Avg xA / game 0.78

Valenzana Compare

Top Goalscorer Palazzolo N.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.85
Avg xA / game 0.52

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Derthona FbC 42 / 100
Valenzana 36 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Derthona FbC Valenzana

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Derthona FbC scored in 62% of their last 29 outings.

Valenzana has conceded goals in 72% of their last 29 outings.

These sides typically produce 2.50 goals when they meet.

Derthona FbC went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Derthona FbC VS Valenzana
1 Goals Scored 1.13
0.75 Goals Conceded 2.13
50% Over 1.5 88%
25% Over 2.5 88%
13% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Derthona FbC

(Home)
04 Oct
Derthona FbC
1 : 3
Alessandria
27 Sept
Saluzzo
0 : 0
Derthona FbC
20 Sept
Derthona FbC
1 : 0
Millesimo
16 Sept
Ligorna
2 : 3
Derthona FbC
13 Sept
Derthona FbC
1 : 1
Imperia Calcio
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Valenzana

(Away)
07 Oct
Valenzana
3 : 2
Saluzzo
04 Oct
Fezzanese
1 : 2
Valenzana
27 Sept
Valenzana
1 : 2
Borgosesia Calcio
20 Sept
Asti Calcio
2 : 2
Valenzana
16 Sept
Valenzana
0 : 1
GSD Lascaris
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Vado 34 24 6 4 69:24 78
2 Ligorna 34 21 9 4 64:26 72
3 AS Biellese 34 16 9 9 48:29 57
4 Varese FC 34 16 8 10 43:43 56
5 Chisola 34 16 7 11 44:36 55
6 Sestri Levante 34 15 9 10 54:34 54
7 Sanremese 34 13 10 11 37:30 49
8 Valenzana 34 12 9 13 33:48 45
9 Celle Varazze 34 12 8 14 41:47 44
10 Saluzzo 34 11 10 13 48:44 43
11 Club Milano 34 12 6 16 43:49 42
12 Imperia Calcio 34 10 11 13 36:44 41
13 Cairese 34 9 13 12 29:34 40
14 Derthona FbC 34 11 7 16 36:46 40
15 Gozzano 34 9 12 13 37:42 39
16 Asti Calcio 34 8 11 15 32:42 35
17 Lavagnese 34 5 12 17 32:52 27
18 NovaRomentin 34 6 3 25 26:82 16
Promotion - Serie D - Group A 2025/2026 (Play Offs)
Relegation - Serie D - Group A 2025/2026 (Play Out)