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Desenzano Calvina vs Magenta - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Italy Italy

Serie D - Group B 2024/2025
Our Tip

Match Events

6' Event
Camarlinghi G.
19' Event
Camarlinghi G.
72' Event
Lo Monaco M.

AI Match Summary

Desenzano Calvina in this Serie D - Group B 2024/2025 matchup, with the score ending 2-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Desenzano Calvina.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

33%
Desenzano Calvina
35%
Draws
32%
Magenta
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

35% / Low Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Desenzano Calvina lately — more wins on the board than Magenta.
  • Model gives Desenzano Calvina a 42% chance of winning this.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 69%
Desenzano Calvina Clean Sheet 20%
Magenta Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Desenzano Calvina Magenta
Matches Played 34 30
Wins 19 6
Draws 10 10
Losses 5 14
Goals Scored 1.15 0.9
Goals Conceded 0.56 1.4
Expected Goals (xG) 1.35 0.81
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jan 11, 2025 Serie D - Group B
Desenzano Calvina vs Magenta
2:1
Sep 14, 2024 Serie D - Group B
Magenta vs Desenzano Calvina
1:3

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Desenzano Calvina Compare

Top Goalscorer Camarlinghi G.
2 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.04
Avg xA / game 0.68

Magenta Compare

Top Goalscorer Lo Monaco M.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.74
Avg xA / game 0.45

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Desenzano Calvina 42 / 100
Magenta 36 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Desenzano Calvina Magenta

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Historical meetings average 3.50 goals per match.

Desenzano Calvina's goal record stands at 71% scoring rate across 34 recent games.

Magenta has conceded goals in 77% of their last 30 outings.

Desenzano Calvina went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Desenzano Calvina VS -
1.5 Goals Scored 0
0.63 Goals Conceded 0
63% Over 1.5 0%
25% Over 2.5 0%
13% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Desenzano Calvina

(Home)
03 Oct
Folgore Caratese
1 : 2
Desenzano Calvina
26 Sept
Desenzano Calvina
0 : 0
Juventus U23
21 Sept
Treviso
0 : 0
Desenzano Calvina
17 Sept
Desenzano Calvina
1 : 3
Lecco
13 Sept
Arzignano
1 : 2
Desenzano Calvina
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Magenta

(Away)
04 May
Varesina
1 : 1
Magenta
27 Apr
Magenta
2 : 0
Sant'Angelo
17 Apr
Chievo
4 : 0
Magenta
13 Apr
Magenta
0 : 0
Sangiuliano City
06 Apr
Breno
1 : 3
Magenta
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Ospitaletto 38 21 12 5 66:34 75
2 Pro Palazzolo 38 20 10 8 69:36 70
3 Desenzano Calvina 38 19 12 7 51:29 69
4 USD Casatese 38 19 11 8 58:34 68
5 Folgore Caratese 38 20 8 10 66:42 68
6 Varesina 38 17 13 8 61:44 64
7 Chievo 38 16 9 13 49:37 57
8 Pro Sesto 38 13 13 12 45:43 52
9 Club Milano 38 14 7 17 44:50 49
10 Sant'Angelo 38 11 15 12 41:41 48
11 Sondrio 38 12 11 15 39:51 47
12 Breno 38 11 14 13 42:53 47
13 Castellanzese 38 10 16 12 43:53 46
14 Vigasio 38 11 12 15 39:41 45
15 Sangiuliano City 38 11 12 15 39:46 45
16 Crema 38 11 11 16 48:57 44
17 Magenta 38 8 12 18 33:53 36
18 Fanfulla 38 6 14 18 28:57 32
19 Ciliverghe Mazzano 38 7 10 21 41:70 31
20 Arconatese 38 7 10 21 33:64 31
Promotion - Serie D - Group B 2024/2025 (Play Offs)