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Desenzano Calvina vs Sangiuliano City

Italy Italy

Serie D - Group D
Our Tip

Match Events

44' Event
Busatto T.

AI Match Summary

The Serie D - Group D game between Desenzano Calvina and Sangiuliano City finished 0-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Sangiuliano City.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

90%
Desenzano Calvina
6%
Draws
4%
Sangiuliano City
Draw rate projection: 6% Favored: Desenzano Calvina

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

95% / Very High Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Desenzano Calvina come out ahead of Sangiuliano City on wins alone.
  • Model gives Desenzano Calvina a 90% chance of winning this.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 62.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 13%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 27.6%
Desenzano Calvina Clean Sheet 68%
Sangiuliano City Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Desenzano Calvina Sangiuliano City
Matches Played 31 30
Wins 21 12
Draws 7 7
Losses 3 11
Goals Scored 1.63 1.25
Goals Conceded 0.38 1.25
Expected Goals (xG) 1.63 1.25
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 0.38 1.25

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 3, 2026 Serie D - Group D
Sangiuliano City vs Desenzano Calvina
0:5
Dec 21, 2025 Serie D - Group D
Desenzano Calvina vs Sangiuliano City
0:1
Jan 29, 2025 Serie D - Group B
Desenzano Calvina vs Sangiuliano City
1:0
Oct 2, 2024 Serie D - Group B
Sangiuliano City vs Desenzano Calvina
1:2
Feb 20, 2022 Serie D - Group B
Sangiuliano City vs Desenzano Calvina
3:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Desenzano Calvina Compare

Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.81

Sangiuliano City Compare

Top Goalscorer Busatto T.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.14
Avg xA / game 0.69

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Desenzano Calvina 95 / 100
Sangiuliano City 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Desenzano Calvina Sangiuliano City

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick DES Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Desenzano Calvina found the back of the net in 81% of recent matches (31 games).

Sangiuliano City let in goals in 60% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 2.80 goals.

Solid form: Desenzano Calvina remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Desenzano Calvina VS Sangiuliano City
1.63 Goals Scored 1.25
0.38 Goals Conceded 1.25
50% Over 1.5 75%
25% Over 2.5 38%
13% Over 3.5 13%

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Desenzano Calvina34238360:2177
2Lentigione34227551:2373
3Pistoiese342011361:2271
4Piacenza34197860:3564
5Pro Palazzolo34169944:3157
6Pro Sesto341510945:3055
7Cittadella Vis Modena341510935:2955
8Rovato Vertovese3414101035:2952
9Sangiuliano City341481241:4547
10SCD Progresso341091538:4239
11Sant'Angelo341091538:5139
12Correggese349121335:3639
13Crema349111435:4738
14Imolese348101628:4734
15Sasso Marconi34871933:4931
16Tropical Coriano347101729:4531
17Trevigliese34582131:6223
18Tuttocuoio34082618:738