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Stadium Background

Desportiva Aracaju vs Independente SE

Brazil Brazil

Sergipano 2 2024
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Desportiva Aracaju in this Sergipano 2 2024 matchup, with the score ending 3-2 — backing the pre-match view that favored Desportiva Aracaju.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

40%
Desportiva Aracaju
33%
Draws
27%
Independente SE
Draw rate projection: 33% Favored: Desportiva Aracaju

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

70% / Medium Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Desportiva Aracaju lately — more wins on the board than Independente SE.
  • Model gives Desportiva Aracaju a 40% chance of winning this.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 98%
Over 1.5 Goals 87.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 23%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 70.2%
Desportiva Aracaju Clean Sheet 20%
Independente SE Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Desportiva Aracaju Independente SE
Matches Played 30 22
Wins 18 5
Draws 4 7
Losses 8 10
Goals Scored 1.75 1
Goals Conceded 0.63 2.67
Expected Goals (xG) 1.75 1.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 0.63 2.67

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Oct 4, 2025 Sergipano 2
Independente SE vs Desportiva Aracaju
0:2
Oct 26, 2024 Sergipano 2
Desportiva Aracaju vs Independente SE
3:2

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Desportiva Aracaju 40 / 100
Independente SE 26 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Desportiva Aracaju Independente SE

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick DES Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Desportiva Aracaju scored in 87% of their last 30 outings.

Independente SE's defensive record shows goals conceded in 86% of 22 matches.

Historical meetings average 3.50 goals per match.

Desportiva Aracaju went unbeaten in 1 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Desportiva Aracaju VS Independente SE
1.75 Goals Scored 1
0.63 Goals Conceded 2.67
75% Over 1.5 100%
50% Over 2.5 50%
13% Over 3.5 33%

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Guarany SE541014:213
2America de Pedrinhas541013:413
3Desportiva Aracaju540116:512
4Frei Paulistano52218:68
5Flamengo SE50143:161
PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Barra SE52217:68
2Atletico Central51135:74
3Independente SE51136:94
4Boca Junior51137:124
5Caninde51048:203