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Desportiva Aracaju vs Sergipe - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Brazil Brazil

Sergipano
Our Tip

Match Events

55' Event
Andrey Dias
60' Event
Paulo Henrique

AI Match Summary

Sergipe in this Sergipano matchup, with the score ending 0-2 — backing the pre-match view that favored Sergipe.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

61%
Desportiva Aracaju
30%
Draws
9%
Sergipe
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Desportiva Aracaju

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

61% / High Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Desportiva Aracaju lately — more wins on the board than Sergipe.
  • 61% — that's where the model lands on Desportiva Aracaju taking it.
  • Regular Sergipano form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 69%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 30%
Desportiva Aracaju Clean Sheet 68%
Sergipe Clean Sheet 12%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Desportiva Aracaju Sergipe
Matches Played 30 31
Wins 17 14
Draws 5 9
Losses 8 8
Goals Scored 1.83 1.23
Goals Conceded 0.87 0.97
Expected Goals (xG) 1.19 1.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 4, 2026 Sergipano
Desportiva Aracaju vs Sergipe
0:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Desportiva Aracaju Compare

Avg xG / game 0.92
Avg xA / game 0.59

Sergipe Compare

Top Goalscorer Andrey Dias
1 Goals
Assists Leader Paulo Henrique
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.91
Avg xA / game 0.56

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Desportiva Aracaju 95 / 100
Sergipe 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Desportiva Aracaju Sergipe

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Desportiva Aracaju Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Solid form: Desportiva Aracaju remains unbeaten in 5 of 5 recent matches.

Attacking prowess: Desportiva Aracaju scored in 77% of their last 30 outings.

Sergipe let in goals in 74% of their last 31 matches.

H2H data points to 2.00 goals as a typical output.

Scoring Trends

Desportiva Aracaju VS Sergipe
1.25 Goals Scored 1.5
0.5 Goals Conceded 1.13
63% Over 1.5 75%
13% Over 2.5 50%
13% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Desportiva Aracaju

(Home)
30 Aug
Falcon
0 : 2
Desportiva Aracaju
23 Aug
Desportiva Aracaju
0 : 0
Falcon
19 Aug
Desportiva Aracaju
2 : 0
Lagarto
13 Aug
Guarany SE
0 : 1
Desportiva Aracaju
10 Aug
Desportiva Aracaju
2 : 0
Lagarto
Page 1 of 6

Sergipe

(Away)
27 Jun
Sergipe
0 : 1
ASA
21 Jun
ASA
1 : 1
Sergipe
14 Jun
Sergipe
1 : 1
Serra Branca
31 May
Decisao
3 : 2
Sergipe
23 May
Sergipe
0 : 1
Treze PB
Page 1 of 7

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Sergipe 9 6 2 1 13:6 20
2 Itabaiana 9 5 2 2 12:4 17
3 Lagarto 9 4 4 1 16:8 16
4 Confianca 9 4 3 2 10:6 15
5 Guarany SE 9 3 3 3 10:10 12
6 America de Propria 9 2 6 1 8:8 12
7 Falcon 9 3 2 4 8:10 11
8 Atletico Gloriense 9 3 1 5 14:13 10
9 Dorense 9 2 1 6 9:23 7
10 Desportiva Aracaju 9 0 2 7 5:17 2
Promotion - Sergipano (Play Offs)
Promotion - Sergipano (Play Offs)