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Dinamo Tbilisi vs Gagra - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Georgia Georgia

Crystalbet Erovnuli Liga Boris Paichadze Dinamo Arena, Tbilisi
Our Tip

Match Events

3' Event
Ninua N.
Assist: Leo Santos
30'
Mujiri D.
35' Event
Kharaishvili G.
Assist: Do Couto M.

AI Match Summary

Dinamo Tbilisi in this Crystalbet Erovnuli Liga matchup, with the score ending 4-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Dinamo Tbilisi.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

45%
Dinamo Tbilisi
35%
Draws
20%
Gagra
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Dinamo Tbilisi

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

45% / Medium Confidence
  • Dinamo Tbilisi have won more games recently than Gagra.
  • Win probability leans Dinamo Tbilisi's way, sitting at 90%.
  • Regular Crystalbet Erovnuli Liga form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • Gagra have won 4 of the last 5 meetings between these two.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 31.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 14%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 74.6%
Dinamo Tbilisi Clean Sheet 14%
Gagra Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Dinamo Tbilisi Gagra
Matches Played 29 30
Wins 15 10
Draws 7 11
Losses 7 9
Goals Scored 1.76 1.2
Goals Conceded 1.31 1.33
Expected Goals (xG) 1.44 1.63
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 14, 2026 Crystalbet Erovnuli Liga
Dinamo Tbilisi vs Gagra
4:0
Jun 14, 2026 Crystalbet Erovnuli Liga
Gagra vs Dinamo Tbilisi
2:1
Apr 21, 2026 Crystalbet Erovnuli Liga
Dinamo Tbilisi vs Gagra
0:1
Nov 21, 2025 Crystalbet Erovnuli Liga
Dinamo Tbilisi vs Gagra
2:4
Sep 13, 2025 Crystalbet Erovnuli Liga
Dinamo Tbilisi vs Gagra
0:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Dinamo Tbilisi Compare

Top Goalscorer Kharaishvili G.
2 Goals
Assists Leader Ninua N.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.11
Avg xA / game 0.72

Gagra Compare

Avg xG / game 1.48
Avg xA / game 0.91

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Dinamo Tbilisi 84 / 100
Gagra 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Dinamo Tbilisi Gagra

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Dinamo Tbilisi Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Gagra's defensive record shows goals conceded in 83% of 30 matches.

Dinamo Tbilisi has registered 5 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Dinamo Tbilisi found the back of the net in 76% of recent matches (29 games).

Games between these two average 3.00 goals.

Scoring Trends

Dinamo Tbilisi VS Gagra
1.75 Goals Scored 1.38
1.88 Goals Conceded 1.13
88% Over 1.5 75%
75% Over 2.5 38%
38% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Dinamo Tbilisi

(Home)
04 Oct
Iberia 1999
1 : 2
Dinamo Tbilisi
19 Sept
Samgurali
2 : 3
Dinamo Tbilisi
14 Sept
Dinamo Tbilisi
4 : 0
Gagra
10 Sept
Dinamo Tbilisi
0 : 0
Meshakhte Tkibuli
06 Sept
Torpedo Kutaisi
1 : 1
Dinamo Tbilisi
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Gagra

(Away)
19 Sept
Gagra
1 : 1
Meshakhte Tkibuli
14 Sept
Dinamo Tbilisi
4 : 0
Gagra
10 Sept
Gagra
1 : 1
Torpedo Kutaisi
05 Sept
Dila Gori
1 : 0
Gagra
31 Aug
Gagra
2 : 0
Iberia 1999
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Dinamo Tbilisi 27 13 9 5 45:30 48
2 Dinamo Batumi 27 13 8 6 46:36 47
3 FC Rustavi 27 13 7 7 32:23 46
4 Iberia 1999 27 14 4 9 38:30 46
5 Dila Gori 27 12 4 11 38:30 40
6 Torpedo Kutaisi 27 9 9 9 43:34 36
7 Samgurali 27 9 5 13 38:52 32
8 Gagra 27 6 11 10 25:37 29
9 Spaeri 27 5 10 12 34:43 25
10 Meshakhte Tkibuli 27 2 11 14 20:44 17
Promotion - Champions League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Relegation - Crystalbet Erovnuli Liga (Relegation)
Relegation - Crystalbet Erovnuli Liga 2 2027 (Main)