Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Dinamo Tirana vs AF Elbasani

Albania Albania

Abissnet Superiore Elbasan Arena
Dinamo Tirana Logo

Dinamo Tirana

4 - 1
FT
AF Elbasani Logo

AF Elbasani

Our Tip
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Heatmaps Risks Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

This looks like a tight matchup. Neither side is clearly dominant, with Dinamo Tirana averaging 1.7 xG at home and AF Elbasani producing 1.5 xG on their travels. AF Elbasani will likely drop deep and defend, forcing Dinamo Tirana to find a way to break them down. A single goal could decide this. The Under 3.5 goals market offers solid value. Everything points to a very close contest where a draw wouldn't surprise anyone.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

34%
Dinamo Tirana
27%
Draws
39%
AF Elbasani
Draw rate projection: 27% Favored: AF Elbasani

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

71% / Medium Confidence
  • Dinamo Tirana picked up more points recently compared to AF Elbasani.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.69 vs 1.50 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the visitors.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 50%
Over 3.5 Goals 30%
Over 4.5 Goals 15%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 59%
Dinamo Tirana Clean Sheet 16%
AF Elbasani Clean Sheet 10%
First Half Goal 74%
Second Half Goal 78%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Dinamo Tirana AF Elbasani
Matches Played 31 30
Wins 12 14
Draws 10 8
Losses 9 8
Goals Scored 1.23 1.5
Goals Conceded 1.13 1.3
Expected Goals (xG) 1.69 1.50
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40
Possession % 53.5% 46.5%
Shots per Match 13.8 11.2
Shots on Target 4.8 3.6
Corners per Match 5.6 4.4
Yellow/Red Cards 1.8 2.2

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

24.05.26 Abissnet Superiore
AF Elbasani vs Dinamo Tirana
3:0
04.04.26 Abissnet Superiore
Dinamo Tirana vs AF Elbasani
4:1
25.01.26 Abissnet Superiore
AF Elbasani vs Dinamo Tirana
2:0
22.11.25 Abissnet Superiore
Dinamo Tirana vs AF Elbasani
1:1
14.09.25 Abissnet Superiore
AF Elbasani vs Dinamo Tirana
1:0

Tactical Matchup Profile

Field Positions & Control Styles

Dinamo Tirana

Pressing Intensity Medium Block
Attacking Style Quick counter-attacks
Wing Attack Frequency A lot of crosses
Defensive Alignment Sit deep
Strengths
  • ✓ Dangerous on corners
  • ✓ Overlap on the wings
  • ✓ Quick counters
Weaknesses
  • ✗ Vulnerable to counters
  • ✗ Weak in the air

AF Elbasani

Pressing Intensity Passive low block (PPDA > 14)
Attacking Style Quick counter-attacks
Wing Attack Frequency Play through the middle
Defensive Alignment Sit deep
Strengths
  • ✓ Quick recovery
  • ✓ Solid midfield screen
  • ✓ Quick counters
Weaknesses
  • ✗ Fouling under pressure
  • ✗ Defending set pieces

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Dinamo Tirana Compare

Top Goalscorer Key Forward
10 Goals
Assists Leader Midfield Maestro
8 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.56
Avg xA / game 1.04

AF Elbasani Compare

Top Goalscorer Key Forward
11 Goals
Assists Leader Midfield Maestro
8 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.64
Avg xA / game 1.09

Availability Alerts

Key Defender AF Elbasani • Hamstring Injury
Out Rating: 8.5
Starting Midfielder Dinamo Tirana • Ankle Sprain
Doubtful Rating: 6.8
Backup Goalkeeper AF Elbasani • Muscle strain
Out Rating: 3.2
Star Striker Dinamo Tirana • Returning to training
Returning Rating: 9.4

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Dinamo Tirana 34 / 100
AF Elbasani 37 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Dinamo Tirana AF Elbasani

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: AF Elbasani or Draw (X2)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Draw (HT)
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +30.9%
3.85
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +13.5%
2.27
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Expected Match Flow Timeline

Dominance and pressure projections by 15-minute intervals

0' - 15' Dominance Index

Dinamo Tirana will likely press early to force mistakes.

Dinamo Tirana 59%
AF Elbasani 37%
15' - 30' Dominance Index

AF Elbasani should settle down and try to slow the pace.

Dinamo Tirana 54%
AF Elbasani 44%
30' - 45' Dominance Index

Both sides will look to break quickly before the half-time whistle.

Dinamo Tirana 51%
AF Elbasani 49%
45' - 60' Dominance Index

Tactical adjustments will show. Expect Dinamo Tirana to push more players wide.

Dinamo Tirana 56%
AF Elbasani 44%
60' - 75' Dominance Index

Players will tire. Fresh legs from the bench will spark quicker counter-attacks.

Dinamo Tirana 51%
AF Elbasani 49%
75' - 90' Dominance Index

Late drama. Teams will take major risks depending on the scoreline.

Dinamo Tirana 62%
AF Elbasani 53%

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Dinamo Tirana attacking → ← attacking AF Elbasani

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Dinamo Tirana have scored in 93% of their home games in the past 12 months.

AF Elbasani concede most goals (44%) in the final 15 minutes of matches.

Meetings between these sides average 20 shots per game, well above the league median.

Dinamo Tirana are unbeaten in 6 straight matches when scoring first.

AF Elbasani have failed to keep a clean sheet in their last 9 matches.

Match Risk Analysis

Assessing potential disruptors and external variables affecting prediction reliability

Risk Level: Moderate
Risk Factor

Fatigue: Both played three matches in ten days, so managers might rotate players.

Risk Factor

Incentive: Dinamo Tirana wants a European spot, while AF Elbasani is battling relegation.

Risk Factor

Cards: Historically tense game, a red card could change the whole setup.

Public Accuracy Dashboard

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Overall Accuracy 78.4%
BTTS Accuracy 73.1%
Over 2.5 Accuracy 75.6%
Correct Score Accuracy 18.9%
*All accuracy percentages are audited daily against official match logs.

Recent Predictions Log

Date Prediction Result Status
2026-07-05 Over 2.5 Goals 1-0 Lost
2026-07-01 Home Win (1) 2-0 Won
2026-06-27 Over 2.5 Goals 3-1 Won
2026-06-23 Home Win (1) 1-1 Lost
2026-06-19 Over 2.5 Goals 3-1 Won
2026-06-15 Home Win (1) 2-0 Won
2026-06-11 Over 2.5 Goals 1-0 Lost
2026-06-07 Home Win (1) 2-0 Won

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

46 Points in last 5 50
1.69 Goals expected (xG) 1.50
1.10 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.40
53.5% Ball possession % 46.5%
13.8 Shots per game 11.2
4.8 Shots on target 3.6
5.6 Corners per game 4.4
1.8 Cards per game 2.2