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Stadium Background

Diyala vs Al-Karma

Iraq Iraq

Stars League
Our Tip

Match Events

10' Event
Hamdi M.
Assist: Jasim S.
66' Event
Faisal A.
Assist: Bassene P.
84' Event
Jabbar Z.

AI Match Summary

Al-Karma in this Stars League matchup, with the score ending 1-2 — backing the pre-match view that favored Al-Karma.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

20%
Diyala
20%
Draws
60%
Al-Karma
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Al-Karma

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

60% / High Confidence
  • Diyala haven't matched Al-Karma's recent run of results.
  • Al-Karma are the model's pick here, at 50%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 75%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 12.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 31.200000000000003%
Diyala Clean Sheet 23%
Al-Karma Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Diyala Al-Karma
Matches Played 30 29
Wins 9 13
Draws 7 12
Losses 14 4
Goals Scored 1.07 1.55
Goals Conceded 1.37 0.76
Expected Goals (xG) 1.20 1.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 3, 2026 Stars League
Diyala vs Al-Karma
1:2
May 27, 2026 Stars League
Al-Karma vs Diyala
1:0
Feb 14, 2026 Stars League
Diyala vs Al-Karma
1:1
Mar 29, 2025 Stars League
Al-Karma vs Diyala
0:0
Jan 19, 2025 Stars League
Diyala vs Al-Karma
0:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Diyala Compare

Top Goalscorer Jabbar Z.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.92
Avg xA / game 0.6

Al-Karma Compare

Top Goalscorer Hamdi M.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Faisal A.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.91
Avg xA / game 0.56

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Diyala 24 / 100
Al-Karma 59 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Diyala Al-Karma

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Al-Karma Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Diyala scored in 70% of their last 30 games.

Al-Karma let in goals in 79% of their last 29 matches.

Recent resilience: Diyala stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.

Historical meetings average 1.20 goals per match.

Scoring Trends

Diyala VS Al-Karma
1.25 Goals Scored 1.38
1.63 Goals Conceded 0.5
75% Over 1.5 75%
63% Over 2.5 25%
25% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Diyala

(Home)
19 Sept
Al Quwa Al Jawiya
1 : 1
Diyala
12 Sept
Diyala
3 : 1
Al Gharraf
08 Sept
Erbil
2 : 0
Diyala
03 Sept
Diyala
1 : 2
Al-Karma
29 Aug
Diyala
3 : 3
Al Golan
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Al-Karma

(Away)
19 Sept
Al-Karma
1 : 0
Zakho
14 Sept
Erbil
1 : 2
Al-Karma
09 Sept
Al-Karma
3 : 0
Al Naft
03 Sept
Diyala
1 : 2
Al-Karma
30 Aug
Al-Karma
2 : 0
Karbala
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Al-Karma 8 6 2 0 14:5 20
2 Al Zawraa 8 5 3 0 15:3 18
3 Erbil 8 5 2 1 12:3 17
4 Newroz 8 4 3 1 13:4 15
5 Al Shorta 8 4 3 1 9:4 15
6 Al Naft 8 4 3 1 9:5 15
7 Al Golan 8 2 4 2 8:9 10
8 Duhok 8 1 6 1 11:11 9
9 Diyala 8 2 3 3 13:14 9
10 Al Minaa 8 2 3 3 8:10 9
11 Zakho 8 2 3 3 7:11 9
12 Al Quwa Al Jawiya 8 1 5 2 11:12 8
13 Ghaz Al Shamal 8 1 5 2 4:5 8
14 Al Mosul 8 2 2 4 9:12 8
15 Al Karkh 8 2 1 5 10:14 7
16 Al Kahraba 8 1 4 3 6:10 7
17 Al Talaba 8 1 4 3 9:14 7
18 Naft Missan 8 1 4 3 6:11 7
19 Al Gharraf 8 1 2 5 4:12 5
20 Karbala 8 1 2 5 6:15 5
Promotion - AFC Champions League 2027/2028 (League phase)
Relegation - Stars League (Relegation)