Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Diyala vs Al Mosul

Iraq Iraq

Stars League
Our Tip

Match Events

2'
Khalid Abd-Alruhman A.
45' Event
Al Dali A.
55' Event
Al Dali A.

AI Match Summary

The Stars League game between Diyala and Al Mosul finished 1-4, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Al Mosul.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

27%
Diyala
33%
Draws
40%
Al Mosul
Draw rate projection: 33% Favored: Al Mosul

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

70% / Medium Confidence
  • Diyala have managed 0.75 goals a game lately — Al Mosul are scoring more at 1.5.
  • Al Mosul are the model's pick here, at 40%.
  • Regular Stars League form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 25.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 11%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 72.6%
Diyala Clean Sheet 17%
Al Mosul Clean Sheet 14%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Diyala Al Mosul
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 8 8
Draws 8 13
Losses 14 9
Goals Scored 0.75 1.5
Goals Conceded 1.25 1.38
Expected Goals (xG) 0.75 1.50
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.25 1.38

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 26, 2026 Stars League
Diyala vs Al Mosul
1:4
Oct 5, 2025 Stars League
Al Mosul vs Diyala
0:3
May 6, 2011 Stars League
Diyala vs Al Mosul
0:0
Jan 30, 2011 Stars League
Al Mosul vs Diyala
1:1
May 16, 2010 Stars League
Diyala vs Al Mosul
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Diyala Compare

Avg xG / game 0.58
Avg xA / game 0.38

Al Mosul Compare

Top Goalscorer Al Dali A.
4 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.36
Avg xA / game 0.83

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Diyala 28 / 100
Al Mosul 39 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Diyala Al Mosul

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick MOS Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Defensive concern: Al Mosul conceded in 80% of 30 recent games.

Diyala found the back of the net in 70% of recent matches (30 games).

Games between these two average 2.40 goals.

Solid form: Diyala remains unbeaten in 2 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Diyala VS Al Mosul
0.75 Goals Scored 1.5
1.25 Goals Conceded 1.38
63% Over 1.5 75%
25% Over 2.5 50%
13% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Diyala

(Home)
01 Jun
Diyala
1 : 0
Duhok
27 May
Al-Karma
1 : 0
Diyala
19 May
Diyala
1 : 4
Baghdad
15 May
Diyala
0 : 2
Al Shorta
11 May
Zakho
1 : 2
Diyala
Page 1 of 6

Al Mosul

(Away)
01 Jun
Al Mosul
3 : 0
Al-Qassim
27 May
Newroz
1 : 1
Al Mosul
20 May
Al Minaa
1 : 0
Al Mosul
15 May
Al Mosul
3 : 3
Duhok
11 May
Al Mosul
2 : 2
Al Talaba
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Al Quwa Al Jawiya38278362:2889
2Al Shorta38248669:3280
3Erbil382310559:3279
4Al Zawraa381715650:3266
5Al-Karma381714753:2665
6Al Talaba381811953:3865
7Al Karkh3816121051:4160
8Newroz381661648:4754
9Zakho3814111349:4553
10Duhok3813111444:4550
11Diyala3813101540:4249
12Al Naft3811151233:3448
13Al Mosul3811141346:4947
14Al Gharraf3811111640:4344
15Naft Missan3811101748:5743
16Al Minaa389131638:4740
17Al Kahraba371152144:5638
18Baghdad381072147:6837
19Al Najaf37652631:6823
20Al-Qassim38063221:966
Promotion - AFC Champions League (League phase)
Relegation - Stars League (Relegation)