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Stadium Background

Diyala vs Naft Al-Basra

Iraq Iraq

Stars League 2024/2025
Our Tip

Match Events

22' Event
Mhaisen A.
58' Event
Zeke Omwele A.
62' Event
Ouro-Agoro I.
(Penalty)

AI Match Summary

Neither side could be separated in this Stars League 2024/2025 matchup, with the score ending 2-2.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

39%
Diyala
30%
Draws
31%
Naft Al-Basra
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Diyala

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

39% / Low Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Diyala lately — more wins on the board than Naft Al-Basra.
  • Diyala are the model's pick here, at 40%.
  • Regular Stars League 2024/2025 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 25%
Over 2.5 Goals 21%
Over 3.5 Goals 6.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 3%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 29.2%
Diyala Clean Sheet 68%
Naft Al-Basra Clean Sheet 12%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Diyala Naft Al-Basra
Matches Played 33 30
Wins 10 5
Draws 8 9
Losses 15 16
Goals Scored 1.06 0.83
Goals Conceded 1.33 1.37
Expected Goals (xG) 1.20 1.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jun 27, 2025 Stars League
Diyala vs Naft Al-Basra
2:2
Jan 29, 2025 Stars League
Naft Al-Basra vs Diyala
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Diyala Compare

Top Goalscorer Mhaisen A.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.92
Avg xA / game 0.6

Naft Al-Basra Compare

Top Goalscorer Zeke Omwele A.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.91
Avg xA / game 0.56

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Diyala 50 / 100
Naft Al-Basra 27 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Diyala Naft Al-Basra

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Diyala Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Diyala scored in 70% of their last 33 games.

Defensive concern: Naft Al-Basra conceded in 63% of 30 recent games.

Games between these two average 2.50 goals.

Solid form: Diyala remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Diyala VS -
0.88 Goals Scored 0
1 Goals Conceded 0
50% Over 1.5 0%
25% Over 2.5 0%
13% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Diyala

(Home)
19 Sept
Al Quwa Al Jawiya
1 : 1
Diyala
12 Sept
Diyala
3 : 1
Al Gharraf
08 Sept
Erbil
2 : 0
Diyala
03 Sept
Diyala
1 : 2
Al-Karma
29 Aug
Diyala
3 : 3
Al Golan
Page 1 of 7

Naft Al-Basra

(Away)
14 Jul
Baghdad
1 : 0
Naft Al-Basra
04 Jul
Naft Al-Basra
4 : 3
Erbil
27 Jun
Diyala
2 : 2
Naft Al-Basra
20 Jun
Naft Al-Basra
1 : 3
Al Shorta
14 Jun
Zakho
2 : 1
Naft Al-Basra
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Al Shorta 38 26 9 3 75:23 87
2 Al Zawraa 38 23 8 7 56:28 77
3 Zakho 38 20 11 7 57:25 71
4 Al Talaba 38 18 9 11 40:27 63
5 Al Quwa Al Jawiya 38 17 9 12 51:43 60
6 Al Naft 38 15 14 9 32:27 59
7 Duhok 38 16 9 13 47:41 57
8 Al-Karma 38 15 11 12 43:35 56
9 Newroz 38 14 11 13 46:41 53
10 Al-Qassim 38 13 13 12 43:43 52
11 Naft Missan 38 14 9 15 42:46 51
12 Erbil 38 15 5 18 49:61 50
13 Al Kahraba 38 12 13 13 39:41 49
14 Al Najaf 38 11 13 14 37:36 46
15 Al Karkh 38 12 10 16 40:49 46
16 Al Minaa 38 11 10 17 39:44 43
17 Diyala 38 10 11 17 31:50 41
18 Naft Al-Basra 38 8 9 21 32:57 33
19 Al-Hudod 38 8 2 28 37:79 26
20 Karbala 38 4 10 24 26:66 22
Promotion - AFC Champions League 2025/2026 (League phase)
Relegation - Stars League 2024/2025 (Relegation)