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Dominica vs Dominican Republic - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

North & Central America North & Central America

CONCACAF Nations League 2024/2025 Estadio Cibao FC, Santiago
Dominica Logo

Dominica

1 - 6
FT
Dominican Republic Logo

Dominican Republic

Our Tip

Match Events

13' Event
Romero D.
Assist: Urbaez J.
30' Event
Joseph T.
Assist: Jules T.
37' Event
Morschel H.
Assist: Nunez R.
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

The CONCACAF Nations League 2024/2025 game between Dominica and Dominican Republic finished 1-6, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Dominican Republic.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

26%
Dominica
15%
Draws
59%
Dominican Republic
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Dominican Republic

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

59% / Medium Confidence
  • Dominican Republic carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Model gives Dominican Republic a 59% chance of winning this.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • Dominican Republic have won 5 of the last 5 meetings between these two.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 31.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 14%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 31.6%
Dominica Clean Sheet 16%
Dominican Republic Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Dominica Dominican Republic
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 7 14
Draws 7 6
Losses 16 10
Goals Scored 1.23 2.13
Goals Conceded 1.9 1.37
Expected Goals (xG) 1.13 1.50
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jun 10, 2025 World Championship
Dominican Republic vs Dominica
5:0
Nov 16, 2024 CONCACAF Nations League
Dominica vs Dominican Republic
1:6
Sep 10, 2024 CONCACAF Nations League
Dominican Republic vs Dominica
2:0
Mar 24, 2021 World Championship
Dominican Republic vs Dominica
1:0
Sep 27, 2012 Caribbean Cup
Dominican Republic vs Dominica
2:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Dominica Compare

Top Goalscorer Joseph T.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.87
Avg xA / game 0.56

Dominican Republic Compare

Top Goalscorer Romero D.
2 Goals
Assists Leader Morschel H.
2 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.36
Avg xA / game 0.83

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Dominica 10 / 100
Dominican Republic 95 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Dominica Dominican Republic

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Dominican Republic Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:3
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Historical meetings average 3.60 goals per match.

Dominica found the back of the net in 67% of recent matches (30 games).

Dominican Republic's defensive record shows goals conceded in 63% of 30 matches.

Dominica went unbeaten in 2 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Dominica VS Dominican Republic
0.63 Goals Scored 1.25
1.75 Goals Conceded 1.63
63% Over 1.5 75%
38% Over 2.5 50%
25% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Dominica

(Home)
04 Oct
Guyana
8 : 1
Dominica
01 Oct
Dominica
1 : 5
Guyana
28 Sept
Dominica
0 : 2
Puerto Rico
25 Sept
Cayman Islands
0 : 0
Dominica
21 Sept
Dominica
1 : 0
Anguilla
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Dominican Republic

(Away)
05 Oct
Nicaragua
1 : 2
Dominican Republic
02 Oct
Dominican Republic
1 : 4
Haiti
28 Sept
Trinidad & Tobago
1 : 2
Dominican Republic
25 Sept
Dominican Republic
3 : 2
Nicaragua
04 Jun
Panama
4 : 2
Dominican Republic
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League Standings (Group 1)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 El Salvador 6 5 0 1 12:6 15
2 Saint Vincent and the Grenadines 6 4 1 1 12:7 13
3 Bonaire 6 1 1 4 4:8 4
4 Montserrat 6 1 0 5 3:10 3
Promotion - CONCACAF Nations League 2024/2025 (League A)
Promotion - Gold Cup (Qualification)
Ranking of third-placed teams
Relegation - CONCACAF Nations League 2024/2025 (League C)

League Standings (Group 2)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Curacao 6 4 1 1 15:3 13
2 Saint Lucia 6 3 0 3 7:15 9
3 Grenada 6 2 1 3 7:6 7
4 Saint Martin 6 2 0 4 8:13 6
Promotion - CONCACAF Nations League 2024/2025 (League A)
Promotion - Gold Cup (Qualification)
Ranking of third-placed teams
Relegation - CONCACAF Nations League 2024/2025 (League C)

League Standings (Group 3)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Haiti 6 6 0 0 29:5 18
2 Puerto Rico 6 3 0 3 11:12 9
3 Sint Maarten 6 3 0 3 7:18 9
4 Aruba 6 0 0 6 5:17 0
Promotion - CONCACAF Nations League 2024/2025 (League A)
Promotion - Gold Cup (Qualification)
Ranking of third-placed teams
Relegation - CONCACAF Nations League 2024/2025 (League C)

League Standings (Group 4)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Dominican Republic 6 6 0 0 27:4 18
2 Bermuda 6 4 0 2 15:13 12
3 Dominica 6 1 1 4 6:18 4
4 Antigua and Barbuda 6 0 1 5 2:15 1
Promotion - CONCACAF Nations League 2024/2025 (League A)
Promotion - Gold Cup (Qualification)
Ranking of third-placed teams
Relegation - CONCACAF Nations League 2024/2025 (League C)