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Don Alvaro vs Jaraiz - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Spain Spain

Tercera RFEF - Group 14 2023/2024
Our Tip

Match Events

20' Event
Mulero M.
72' Event
Rocha H.

AI Match Summary

The Tercera RFEF - Group 14 2023/2024 game between Don Alvaro and Jaraiz finished 2-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Don Alvaro.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

16%
Don Alvaro
20%
Draws
64%
Jaraiz
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Jaraiz

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

64% / High Confidence
  • Don Alvaro haven't matched Jaraiz's recent run of results.
  • Jaraiz are the model's pick here, at 80%.
  • Regular Tercera RFEF - Group 14 2023/2024 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 37.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 6.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 3%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 31.6%
Don Alvaro Clean Sheet 17%
Jaraiz Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Don Alvaro Jaraiz
Matches Played 30 31
Wins 6 11
Draws 9 10
Losses 15 10
Goals Scored 0.83 1.35
Goals Conceded 1.47 1.16
Expected Goals (xG) 0.97 1.43
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 11, 2024 Tercera RFEF - Group 14
Don Alvaro vs Jaraiz
2:0
Oct 1, 2023 Tercera RFEF - Group 14
Jaraiz vs Don Alvaro
6:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Don Alvaro Compare

Top Goalscorer Mulero M.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Rocha H.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.75
Avg xA / game 0.48

Jaraiz Compare

Avg xG / game 1.3
Avg xA / game 0.79

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Don Alvaro 12 / 100
Jaraiz 86 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Don Alvaro Jaraiz

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Jaraiz Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

H2H data points to 4.50 goals as a typical output.

Jaraiz has conceded goals in 71% of their last 31 outings.

Jaraiz's recent record shows 3 losses from the last 5 matches.

Don Alvaro's goal record stands at 53% scoring rate across 30 recent games.

Scoring Trends

- VS Jaraiz
0 Goals Scored 1.75
0 Goals Conceded 0.75
0% Over 1.5 75%
0% Over 2.5 50%
0% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Don Alvaro

(Home)
26 Jul
Don Alvaro
0 : 4
AD Merida
20 Jul
Don Alvaro
0 : 4
AD Merida
10 May
Pueblonuevo
2 : 2
Don Alvaro
05 May
Don Alvaro
0 : 1
RCP Valverdeno
28 Apr
CD Azuaga
2 : 0
Don Alvaro
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Jaraiz

(Away)
04 Oct
Montijo
2 : 0
Jaraiz
27 Sept
Jaraiz
2 : 1
SP Villafranca
19 Sept
AD Llerenense
1 : 0
Jaraiz
13 Sept
Jaraiz
2 : 3
Moralo
06 Sept
Jaraiz
2 : 2
Pueblonuevo
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Don Benito 34 23 7 4 71:13 76
2 CD Coria 34 19 12 3 58:20 69
3 CD Azuaga 34 17 11 6 48:31 62
4 SP Villafranca 34 15 10 9 45:26 55
5 Moralo 34 15 8 11 55:44 53
6 Castuera 34 15 7 12 49:37 52
7 CD Diocesano 34 14 7 13 50:46 49
8 Jaraiz 34 14 4 16 51:52 46
9 Pueblonuevo 34 12 7 15 35:45 43
10 CD Calamonte 34 9 15 10 40:52 42
11 Jerez CF 34 11 9 14 41:52 42
12 Olivenza FC 34 10 11 13 32:41 41
13 Arroyo 34 10 11 13 33:39 41
14 CF Trujillo 34 8 14 12 30:38 38
15 Don Alvaro 34 7 11 16 30:50 32
16 RCP Valverdeno 34 8 8 18 37:58 32
17 Montehermoso 34 7 11 16 33:63 32
18 Fuente de Cantos 34 4 13 17 28:59 25
Promotion - Tercera RFEF - Group 14 2023/2024 (Play Offs)