Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Dorense vs Falcon

Brazil Brazil

Sergipano 2025
Dorense Logo

Dorense

0 - 2
FT
Falcon Logo

Falcon

Our Tip

Match Events

45' Event
Vitor Alagoano
54' Event
Arthur Cacule
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

The Sergipano 2025 game between Dorense and Falcon finished 0-2, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Falcon.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

16%
Dorense
15%
Draws
69%
Falcon
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Falcon

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

69% / High Confidence
  • Dorense haven't matched Falcon's recent run of results.
  • Falcon are the model's pick here, at 90%.
  • Regular Sergipano 2025 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 73%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 16.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 7%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 27.200000000000003%
Dorense Clean Sheet 10%
Falcon Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Dorense Falcon
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 9 14
Draws 5 3
Losses 16 13
Goals Scored 0.93 1.1
Goals Conceded 1.67 1.17
Expected Goals (xG) 0.78 1.98
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jan 31, 2026 Sergipano
Dorense vs Falcon
1:0
Jan 11, 2025 Sergipano
Dorense vs Falcon
0:2
Jan 13, 2024 Sergipano
Falcon vs Dorense
2:3
Jan 28, 2023 Sergipano
Falcon vs Dorense
3:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Dorense Compare

Avg xG / game 0.6
Avg xA / game 0.39

Falcon Compare

Top Goalscorer Vitor Alagoano
1 Goals
Assists Leader Arthur Cacule
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.8
Avg xA / game 1.1

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Dorense 10 / 100
Falcon 95 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Dorense Falcon

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Falcon Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Dorense found the back of the net in 63% of recent matches (30 games).

Games between these two average 2.75 goals.

Falcon's defensive record shows goals conceded in 57% of 30 matches.

Recent resilience: Dorense stayed unbeaten in 1 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Dorense VS Falcon
0.67 Goals Scored 1.13
2.83 Goals Conceded 0.88
83% Over 1.5 63%
83% Over 2.5 38%
33% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Dorense

(Home)
14 Feb
Atletico Gloriense
5 : 0
Dorense
11 Feb
Dorense
1 : 2
Confianca
07 Feb
Sergipe
2 : 1
Dorense
04 Feb
Itabaiana
3 : 0
Dorense
31 Jan
Dorense
1 : 0
Falcon
Page 1 of 6

Falcon

(Away)
23 Aug
Desportiva Aracaju
0 : 0
Falcon
18 Aug
Falcon
1 : 0
Atletico Gloriense
13 Aug
Falcon
1 : 0
America de Propria
08 Aug
Atletico Gloriense
0 : 1
Falcon
05 Aug
Falcon
2 : 0
Desportiva Aracaju
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Confianca 9 6 2 1 26:8 20
2 Itabaiana 9 5 4 0 18:7 19
3 Lagarto 9 5 2 2 20:8 17
4 America de Propria 9 4 3 2 10:6 15
5 Guarany SE 9 4 1 4 9:19 13
6 Falcon 9 4 0 5 11:15 12
7 Sergipe 9 3 2 4 10:11 11
8 Dorense 9 2 2 5 7:12 8
9 Barra SE 9 2 1 6 8:27 7
10 Carmopolis 9 0 3 6 10:16 3
Promotion - Sergipano 2025 (Play Offs)
Promotion - Sergipano 2025 (Play Offs)