Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Dorense vs Itabaiana

Brazil Brazil

Sergipano 2024
Our Tip

Match Events

45' Event
Rodrigues dos Santos J.
59'
Ladilson
90' Event
Vitao

AI Match Summary

Neither side could be separated in this Sergipano 2024 tie, finishing 1-1. Extra time or penalties follow.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

64%
Dorense
15%
Draws
21%
Itabaiana
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Dorense

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

21% / Low Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Itabaiana lately — more wins on the board than Dorense.
  • Itabaiana are the model's pick here, at 50%.
  • Itabaiana arrive in better shape, but cup ties don't always follow form.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 37.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 29.6%
Dorense Clean Sheet 20%
Itabaiana Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Dorense Itabaiana
Matches Played 30 35
Wins 9 10
Draws 5 11
Losses 16 14
Goals Scored 0.93 0.97
Goals Conceded 1.67 1.26
Expected Goals (xG) 1.54 1.18
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 4, 2026 Sergipano
Itabaiana vs Dorense
3:0
Feb 16, 2025 Sergipano
Itabaiana vs Dorense
4:1
Mar 30, 2024 Sergipano
Itabaiana vs Dorense
2:0
Mar 16, 2024 Sergipano
Dorense vs Itabaiana
1:1
Mar 13, 2024 Sergipano
Dorense vs Itabaiana
0:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Dorense Compare

Top Goalscorer Rodrigues dos Santos J.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.18
Avg xA / game 0.77

Itabaiana Compare

Top Goalscorer Vitao
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.07
Avg xA / game 0.66

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Dorense 24 / 100
Itabaiana 59 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Dorense Itabaiana

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Itabaiana Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Dorense's goal record stands at 63% scoring rate across 30 recent games.

Itabaiana's defensive record shows goals conceded in 66% of 35 matches.

Games between these two average 2.40 goals.

Away concern: Itabaiana has suffered 4 losses in 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

- VS Itabaiana
0 Goals Scored 1.25
0 Goals Conceded 1.88
0% Over 1.5 75%
0% Over 2.5 50%
0% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Dorense

(Home)
14 Feb
Atletico Gloriense
5 : 0
Dorense
11 Feb
Dorense
1 : 2
Confianca
07 Feb
Sergipe
2 : 1
Dorense
04 Feb
Itabaiana
3 : 0
Dorense
31 Jan
Dorense
1 : 0
Falcon
Page 1 of 6

Itabaiana

(Away)
29 Aug
Itabaiana
0 : 2
Botafogo PB
23 Aug
Maranhao
4 : 1
Itabaiana
16 Aug
Barra FC (Santa Catarina)
1 : 0
Itabaiana
09 Aug
Itabaiana
0 : 2
SER Caxias do Sul
25 Jul
Confianca
1 : 1
Itabaiana
Page 1 of 7

Tournament Bracket & Draw

Quarter-finals
Confianca -
TBD -
Itabaiana 3
Dorense 1
Sergipe -
TBD -
Lagarto 2
Falcon 1
Semi-finals
Confianca 3
Itabaiana 2
Sergipe 3
Lagarto 2
Final
Confianca 2
Sergipe 1