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Douane vs Kaedi

Mauritania Mauritania

Ligue 1
Douane Logo

Douane

1 - 0
FT
Kaedi Logo

Kaedi

Our Tip

Match Events

50' Event
Arwel D.
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

The Ligue 1 game between Douane and Kaedi finished 1-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Douane.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

20%
Douane
35%
Draws
45%
Kaedi
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Kaedi

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

35% / Low Confidence
  • Douane carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Model gives Douane a 36% chance of winning this.
  • Regular Ligue 1 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 34%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 70.2%
Douane Clean Sheet 20%
Kaedi Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Douane Kaedi
Matches Played 30 31
Wins 13 7
Draws 11 8
Losses 6 16
Goals Scored 1.47 0.94
Goals Conceded 1.07 1.52
Expected Goals (xG) 1.38 0.94
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 9, 2026 Ligue 1
Kaedi vs Douane
1:1
Dec 28, 2025 Ligue 1
Douane vs Kaedi
1:0
May 29, 2025 Ligue 1
Kaedi vs Douane
2:0
Jan 20, 2025 Ligue 1
Douane vs Kaedi
3:1
May 28, 2024 Ligue 1
Douane vs Kaedi
2:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Douane Compare

Top Goalscorer Arwel D.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.06
Avg xA / game 0.69

Kaedi Compare

Avg xG / game 0.85
Avg xA / game 0.52

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Douane 36 / 100
Kaedi 33 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Douane Kaedi

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Douane's goal record stands at 70% scoring rate across 30 recent games.

Kaedi has conceded goals in 71% of their last 31 outings.

These sides typically produce 2.40 goals when they meet.

Douane went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Douane VS Kaedi
1.38 Goals Scored 0.88
1 Goals Conceded 1.38
75% Over 1.5 50%
38% Over 2.5 25%
25% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Douane

(Home)
25 May
Nzeidane
3 : 0
Douane
19 May
Douane
0 : 1
Gendrim
09 May
Kaedi
1 : 1
Douane
04 May
Douane
2 : 2
Nouadhibou
29 Apr
SNIM
0 : 0
Douane
Page 1 of 6

Kaedi

(Away)
23 May
Nouakchott King's
2 : 0
Kaedi
20 May
Police
0 : 1
Kaedi
09 May
Kaedi
1 : 1
Douane
04 May
Ksar
0 : 1
Kaedi
29 Apr
Kaedi
2 : 4
Tevragh-Zeina
Page 1 of 7

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Nouadhibou 26 17 7 2 49:15 58
2 Nzeidane 26 13 7 6 42:35 46
3 Douane 26 12 9 5 40:29 45
4 Pompiers 26 11 11 4 29:22 44
5 Nouakchott Academy 26 10 9 7 32:22 39
6 Gendrim 26 9 10 7 26:29 37
7 Chemal 26 10 6 10 34:35 36
8 Nouakchott King's 26 8 10 8 37:34 34
9 SNIM 26 7 12 7 29:28 33
10 Tevragh-Zeina 26 7 11 8 34:33 32
11 Police 26 5 11 10 28:31 26
12 Kaedi 26 5 8 13 21:37 23
13 Ksar 26 4 5 17 23:48 17
14 Inter Nouakchott 26 3 6 17 24:50 15
Promotion - CAF Champions League (Qualification)